Match report →
Fiorentina – Juventus2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Fiorentina
1.24
Total xG
2.69
Juventus
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fiorentina | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.60 | +0.60 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Nicolò Fagioli on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Federico Gatti on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kerim Alajbegovic on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Juventus is 7th in Serie A with 17 points, Fiorentina is 16th with 8 points
- Form: Juventus won 3 of their last 5 matches, Fiorentina won 1
- Defense: Fiorentina concede 2.2 goals per match at home in the league this season
Risks
- Rest days: Juventus with 3 days since their last match
- Squad: Juventus without A. Cambiaso, a starter in 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Fiorentina31%
Draw29%
Juventus40%
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw60%
Juventus or draw69%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.24 : 1.45, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fiorentina: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Juventus: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sassuolo: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
- Fiorentina: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Fiorentina with Franco Mastantuono starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (11/18 games, last 30)
- Juventus: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Fiorentina 4-2-3-1 · Juventus 4-4-2
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 27 C. Ndour
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 25 A. Njie
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 22 W. McKennie
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 13 J. Boga
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
- 27 N. Woltemade
Substitutes
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 72 B. Mazzeo
- 73 A. Pirrò
- 75 D. Beldenti
- 29 P. Sarr
- 4 F. Gatti
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 24 D. Rugani
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 6 L. Kelly
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 2 M. Çelik
- 18 J. Ekhator
- 33 N. Murara Neto
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