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Cagliari – Frosinone1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cagliari
1.29
Total xG
3.15
Frosinone
1.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cagliari | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.67 | +0.67 |
| Attack weakness (0.49x league average) | −0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| M'Bala Nzola not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Antonio Raimondo not in squad (8 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Frosinone have 3 wins in their last 5 matches, Cagliari are winless in their last 5 matches
- Attack: Frosinone average 2.4 goals per match in the league this season, Cagliari 0.9 per match
- Shots on target: Frosinone averaged 7.6 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Cagliari 3.8 per match
Risks
- Squad: A. Raimondo is absent, having scored 8 of the 24 league goals for Frosinone players this season (33%)
- Attack: Frosinone generated 2.12 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 3 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Cagliari25%
Draw25%
Frosinone50%
Double chance
Cagliari or draw50%
Frosinone or draw75%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.29 : 1.86, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Frosinone: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Cagliari: 7 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Cagliari: 45% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 11)
- Cagliari: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Frosinone: 62% of all goals in the first half (18 of 29, last 12 games)
Lineups
Cagliari 4-3-3 · Frosinone 4-2-3-1
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 22 R. Kofler
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 36 N. Grandu
- 8 M. Adopo
- 4 A. Romano
- 14 A. Deiola
- 19 Y. Trepy
- 31 P. Mendy
- 70 D. Maldini
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 14 G. Calò
- 16 M. Cichella
- 7 F. Ghedjemis
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 11 D. Birligea
Substitutes
- 28 Y. Sugawara
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 12 A. Sherri
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 32 I. Sulev
- 30 A. Akakriki
- 35 A. Sugamele
- 37 M. Prettenhoffer
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 40 S. Fini
- 73 P. Masini
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
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