Match report →
Venezia – Udinese2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Venezia
1.46
Total xG
2.68
Udinese
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Venezia | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.45 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.00 | |
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- xG: Venezia recorded 1.30 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.4 goals per match
- Form: Udinese is winless in their last 5 matches with 4 losses, Venezia took 1 win
Risks
- Away: Udinese score 1.75 goals per match away in the league this season, Venezia 0.6 per match at home
- Table: Udinese are 19th in the league with 5 points, Venezia are 20th with 3 points
All probabilities
Result
Venezia41%
Draw29%
Udinese30%
Double chance
Venezia or draw70%
Udinese or draw59%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.46 : 1.22, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Venezia: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Udinese: 43% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 14)
Lineups
Venezia 3-5-2 · Udinese 3-4-2-1
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 25 R. Halhal
- 2 M. Moreno
- 15 J. Nunes Jesus
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 19 S. Sohm
- 26 T. Bašić
- 70 P. Mazzocchi
- 10 J. Zamora
- 45 A. Adams
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 16 M. Palma
- 28 O. Solet Bomawoko
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 24 J. Piotrowski
- 8 J. Karlström
- 11 H. Kamara
- 10 N. Zaniolo
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 9 K. Davis
Substitutes
- 14 T. Rendall Correia
- 8 L. Dabo
- 56 K. Lisman
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 77 A. Fernández Casino
- 21 T. Helgason
- 17 A. Bella-Kotchap
- 96 L. Montipò
- 5 R. Haps
- 6 G. Busio
- 32 J. Duncan
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 29 L. Lauberbach
- 91 L. Jovanović
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 30 G. Chakvetadze
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 15 V. Bayo
- 38 L. Miller
- 20 J. Arizala
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 45 G. Vinciati
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