Match report →
Torino – Lecce1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Torino
1.48
Total xG
2.52
Lecce
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Torino | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.67 | +0.67 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.47 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| Ché Adams on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Rolando Mandragora not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 79% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Torino won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Lecce lost 4 of their last 5 matches
- Defense: Lecce conceded 2.1 goals per game in the league this season, Torino 1.6 per game
Risks
- Home/Away: Torino conceded 2 goals per game across 5 home matches in the league this season
- Head-to-head: Lecce won 2 of the 4 previous meetings, Torino 1
All probabilities
Result
Torino46%
Draw29%
Lecce25%
Double chance
Torino or draw75%
Lecce or draw54%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.48 : 1.03, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Torino: 7 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Lecce: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Torino: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 15)
Lineups
Torino 3-5-2 · Lecce 3-5-2
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 45 R. Belghali
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 21 D. Santos Bragança
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 18 G. Simeone
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 4 K. Gaspar
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 77 M. Kaba
- 79 O. Ngom
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 25 A. Gallo
- 9 N. Štulić
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
Substitutes
- 5 E. Cömert
- 2 N. Patterson
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 19 C. Adams
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 3 C. Biraghi
- 22 C. Casadei
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 9 P. Pellegri
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 76 L. Siviero
- 69 W. Geubbels
- 18 G. Jean
- 29 L. Coulibaly
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 5 J. Siebert
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 1 M. Bleve
- 28 O. Gorter
- 16 O. Gandelman
- 8 S. Fofana
- 22 F. Esteban Sánchez
- 31 E. Scott
- 32 Alexandru Borbei
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