Match report →
Roma – Sassuolo3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Roma
2.42
Total xG
3.29
Sassuolo
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Roma | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.47x league average) | +1.07 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.65 | +0.65 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.59 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.58 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.52 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.52 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 17, 14 places gap) | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 3, 14 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Niccolò Pisilli on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gianluca Mancini not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Vasilije Adžić not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Domenico Berardi not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Darryl Bakola on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 34% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Roma average 2.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, Sassuolo concede 2.4 per game away
- Form: Roma have 7 wins from 10 league games this season, Sassuolo lost 4 of their last 5 games
- Shots: Roma averaged 7 shots on target per game in recent matches, Sassuolo 2.6 per game
Risks
- Squad: Roma without P. Gollini, who started 4 of the last 5 games
- Defense: Roma conceded 2 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Roma70%
Draw19%
Sassuolo11%
Double chance
Roma or draw89%
Sassuolo or draw30%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.42 : 0.87, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: 9 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Sassuolo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Roma: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Sassuolo: 6 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Roma 3-4-2-1 · Sassuolo 3-5-2
Roma
- 32 D. Vásquez Llach
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 4 B. Cristante
- 17 K. Kone
- 43 W. França Lima
- 18 M. Malvano
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 14 D. Malen
Sassuolo
- 49 A. Murić
- 6 S. Walukiewicz
- 21 J. Idzes
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 18 N. Matić
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 3 J. Doig
- 94 S. Esposito
- 45 A. Lauriente
Substitutes
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 15 M. de Roon
- 9 S. Castro
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 68 A. Arena
- 77 E. Lulli
- 12 L. Kilvinger
- 64 V. Maccaroni
- 50 D. Bakola
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 17 V. Adžić
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 9 K. Bowie
- 20 I. Brempt
- 80 S. Turati
- 12 G. Satalino
- 70 E. Pieragnolo
- 5 F. Candé
- 19 L. Skjellerup
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 77 N. Pierini
- 35 L. Lipani
- 8 A. Ghion
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