Match report →
Australia – Brazil1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Australia
0.85
Total xG
3.12
Brazil
2.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Australia | Brazil |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.92x league average) | +1.30 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Bos not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Casemiro not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lucas Paquetá not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 68% win probability for Brazil with 2.27 expected goals
- Tactical dominance: Brazil averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches with 53% possession
- Form trend: Brazil currently scores more frequently (2.0) than their season average, while Australia's goal production has stalled (1.0)
Risks
- Australia's lack of offensive power: The home team recently averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match
- Brazil's away weakness: The visitors conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
Australia12%
Draw20%
Brazil68%
Double chance
Australia or draw32%
Brazil or draw88%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
0:2
11%
1:2
10%
1:1
10%
0:3
9%
1:3
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Brazil: 9 of 27 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Brazil: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (9 of 27)
Lineups
Australia 3-4-2-1 · Brazil 4-2-3-1
Australia
- 18 P. Beach
- 3 A. Circati
- 19 H. Souttar
- 25 L. Herrington
- 4 J. Italiano
- 22 J. Irvine
- 24 P. Junior Okon-Engstler
- 16 A. Behich
- 8 C. Metcalfe
- 17 N. Irankunda
- 26 T. Yengi
Brazil
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 13 M. França Silva
- 4 M. Aoás Corrêa
- 14 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 6 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
- 8 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 5 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 11 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 10 Raphinha
- 7 V. Júnior
- 9 E. Moreira de Sousa
Substitutes
- 5 K. Bos
- 21 K. Adamson
- 1 J. Chapman
- 14 R. McGree
- 11 M. Younis
- 12 P. Izzo
- 7 P. Yazbek
- 13 A. O'Neill
- 2 M. Degenek
- 6 J. Geria
- 10 N. Velupillay
- 23 Y. Dukuly
- 20 E. Adams
- 15 D. Leonard
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 18 D. Soares de Paulo
- 24 J. da Cunha Filho
- 3 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 21 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 16 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 26 R. Rocha
- 22 S. Dias Lino
- 12 O. Rezende Costa
- 23 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 15 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 17 B. de Souza Bidon
- 19 P. Abreu dos Santos
- 25 G. Silva Bontempo
- 20 M. Martinelli
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