Friendly International

Australia - Brazil

09/25/2026, 10:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Australia
0.9
Total xG
3.1
Brazil
2.3
Most Likely Scores

0:2

11%

1:2

10%

1:1

10%

0:3

9%

1:3

7%
What influences the xG?
AUSBRA

Australia

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Jordan Bos not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)

Brazil

Attack strength (1.92x league average)
+1.30
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.01
Casemiro not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Lucas Paquetá not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brazil: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Brazil: 9 of 27 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Brazil: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (9 of 27)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

12%

Draw

20%

Away Win

68%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

32%

Away or Draw

88%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 68% win probability for Brazil with 2.27 expected goals
  • Tactical dominance: Brazil averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches with 53% possession
  • Form trend: Brazil currently scores more frequently (2.0) than their season average, while Australia's goal production has stalled (1.0)
Risk Factors
  • Australia's lack of offensive power: The home team recently averaged only 2.8 shots on target per match
  • Brazil's away weakness: The visitors conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
Overview

Australia host Brazil at Stadium Australia

Friendly International on September 25, 2026, 11:00 AM

Clear favorite role for the South American visitors

Form

Australia shows the form DWLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recent result was a 1-1 draw against Egypt

Brazil arrives with the form DWWWL

The Seleção lost their last match 1-2 against Norway

Statistics

Australia averages 2.38 goals scored and 0.44 goals conceded this season

The home record stands at an average of 2.3 goals scored

Brazil averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded

The visitors conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches recorded in the provided dataset

Key Players

Nestory Irankunda scores 0.64 goals per 90 minutes this season

Connor Metcalfe shows a rising form trend

Alessandro Circati averages a season rating of 7.01

Vinicius Junior has recorded 1 goal and 2 assists this season

Raphinha excelled recently with 9 goals in his last 5 matches

Danilo delivers stable performances with a form rating of 7.20

Not nominated: Jordan Bos (2 goals / 1 assist)

Not nominated: Casemiro (1 goal / 1 assist), Lucas Paquetá (1 goal / 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Patrick Beach kept 5 clean sheets at home this season

Hugo Souza averages a rating of 6.71 over his last 5 games

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Stadium Australia

Previous matches at this venue averaged 1.5 goals

Australia has 84 days since their last match

Brazil arrives with 82 days of rest

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