Friendly International
Australia - Brazil
09/29/2026, 10:00 AM
Expected Goals
0.8
3.0
2.1
0:2
12%1:1
10%1:2
10%0:3
8%1:3
7%What influences the xG?
Australia
Brazil
The Lab
- 1Brazil: 10 of 26 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
12%
Draw
22%
Away Win
66%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
34%
Away or Draw
88%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Strong advantage for Brazil with a modeled win probability of 66%
- Raphinha is in outstanding form with 8 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 matches
- Brazil recently dominated possession with an average of 56% and 6.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Brazil concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match
- Australia's strong home defense with only 0.3 goals conceded on average could slow down the game
- Both teams have only 4 days of rest since their last head-to-head match
Overview
Friendly International clash at Stadium Australia
Australia faces Brazil
The mathematical analysis projects a 66% chance of a victory for Brazil
The away team enters the match with an expected goals average of 2.14
Form
Australia holds a WLDDD form with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Brazil shows a WWWLD form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Their most recent encounter ended in a 1-1 draw four days ago
Statistics
Australia averaged 2.38 goals scored and 0.44 goals conceded across 16 season games
The hosts conceded only 0.3 goals per home game this season
Brazil averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded over 18 matches
The visitors conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away game
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between the teams
This single match on September 25, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw
The goal difference remains balanced at 1-1
Key Players
Nestory Irankunda records a season rating of 7.36 with 3 goals
Connor Metcalfe shows a rising form with a 6.93 rating in recent games
Alessandro Circati has 1 goal in 5 appearances with a 6.91 rating
Raphinha stands out with 8 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 matches
Vinicius Junior holds a season rating of 7.12
Rayan contributed 2 goals in 3 appearances with a 7.41 rating
Jordan Bos, Casemiro, and Lucas Paquetá are not nominated
Goalkeepers
Patrick Beach appeared in 2 matches this season
Otávio Costa has 0 appearances this season but holds a 7.45 rating from recent games
Australia secured 10 clean sheets overall, while Brazil recorded 6
Influences
The match will be played on grass at Stadium Australia
Venue statistics show an average of 1.67 total goals per match
Both teams scored in only 1 out of 3 matches at this stadium