Match report →
Santa Clara – Nacional2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Santa Clara
1.44
Total xG
2.23
Nacional
0.79
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santa Clara | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Serginho not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Silva not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gustavo Klismahn not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 60% available) | ||
| Jesús Ramírez not in squad (18 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| José Gomes on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Paulinho Bóia not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alan Nuñez not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Chiheb Labidi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 74% of goal output missing (only 36% available) |
Key factors
- Major absence: Nacional is missing key players like Jesús Ramírez and Paulinho Bóia, leaving only 37% of their usual starting strength available
- Model prediction: The mathematically calculated home advantage is reflected in a 51% home win probability and 1.44 expected goals
- Tactical presence: Nacional averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Squad depletion: Missing Serginho, Gabriel Silva, and Gustavo Klismahn, Santa Clara has only 60% of their usual starting strength available
- Lack of offensive threat: Santa Clara averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Away vulnerability: Nacional conceded an average of 1.69 goals per away game this season
All probabilities
Result
Santa Clara51%
Draw30%
Nacional19%
Double chance
Santa Clara or draw81%
Nacional or draw49%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
14%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Nacional with Witiness Quembo: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Santa Clara: 56% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 9)
- Santa Clara: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 8 games (5 of 9 total)
- Santa Clara: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Santa Clara 4-2-3-1 · Nacional 3-4-3
Santa Clara
- 1 L. Oliveira de França
- 2 D. Dos Santos Cabral
- 23 S. Pena De Lima
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 5 G. Romão
- 6 P. Ferreira
- 41 D. Borges da Silva
- 99 L. de Castro
- 8 J. Rocha Tavares
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 52 W. de Oliveira Andrade
- 28 I. Liziero Pereira
- 26 J. Organista da Silva
- 7 M. Jensen
- 8 M. Baeza Pérez
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
Substitutes
- 37 R. de Amorim Filho
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 12 H. Júnior
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 85 A. Gonçalves Infante
- 88 H. Souza Lima Santos
- 15 C. Abidi
- 22 F. Barros Soares
- 30 M. Silva Watts Rodrigues
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 50 K. Medeiros de Freitas
- 88 Deivison Souza Brito
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 23 M. José Iseppe
- 2 D. de la Cruz
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