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Liga Portugal

Santa Clara - Nacional

08/10/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Santa Clara
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Nacional
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SCNAC

Santa Clara

Rising form (1.5 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.12
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.03
Serginho not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Gabriel Silva not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
Gustavo Klismahn not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

Nacional

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.36
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Jesús Ramírez not in squad (18 goals, 0 assists)
José Gomes on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Paulinho Bóia not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Alan Nuñez not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Chiheb Labidi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
74% of goal output missing (only 36% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Nacional with Witiness Quembo: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 1.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Santa Clara: 56% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 9)

  • 4
    Santa Clara: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 8 games (5 of 9 total)

  • 5
    Santa Clara: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

30%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Major absence: Nacional is missing key players like Jesús Ramírez and Paulinho Bóia, leaving only 37% of their usual starting strength available
  • Model prediction: The mathematically calculated home advantage is reflected in a 51% home win probability and 1.44 expected goals
  • Tactical presence: Nacional averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Squad depletion: Missing Serginho, Gabriel Silva, and Gustavo Klismahn, Santa Clara has only 60% of their usual starting strength available
  • Lack of offensive threat: Santa Clara averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Away vulnerability: Nacional conceded an average of 1.69 goals per away game this season
Overview

Santa Clara host Nacional at the Estádio de São Miguel

Liga Portugal match on August 10, 2026, 7:15 PM

Both teams start the new season with zero points

The home team enters as favorites with a predicted 51% win probability

Form

Santa Clara's form: DWDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently

Nacional's form is WWLLW

The visitors secured 3 wins and suffered 2 losses recently

Santa Clara shows a positive trend, averaging 1.5 goals in recent games

Statistics

Santa Clara scored an average of 0.94 goals per game and conceded 1.21

At home, they averaged 0.94 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded

Nacional scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 1.32 per game

Away from home, Nacional conceded an average of 1.69 goals per game

Both teams scored in 14 of Santa Clara's 34 matches this season

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in total

Santa Clara won 2 games, Nacional won 1, with 1 draw

The goal difference is 6:5 in favor of Santa Clara

The last encounter on May 11, 2026, ended in a 2-0 home victory for Santa Clara

Key Players

Vinícius Lopes has 6 goals and 1 assist with a 6.81 rating

Gonçalo Paciência scored 3 goals in 12 season appearances

Sidney Lima holds an average rating of 6.85

Ze Vitor contributed 4 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.0

Liziero recorded 4 assists and an average rating of 7.04

Léo Santos scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Lucas França is in goal for Santa Clara, who secured 10 clean sheets this season

Renato Marin starts in goal for Nacional, who recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estádio de São Miguel

Venue statistics show an average of 2.0 goals per game with a 20% BTTS rate

Santa Clara secured 7 clean sheets at home with a balanced home goal record of 17:17

Weather data is not included in the provided dataset

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