Match report →
Gil Vicente – Rio Ave1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Gil Vicente
1.47
Total xG
2.25
Rio Ave
0.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gil Vicente | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.84 | |
| Low-scoring league (2 goals/match) | −0.50 | −0.50 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Murilo de Souza Costa on the bench (11 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Luís André Leite Esteves not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 64% of goal output missing (only 35% available) | ||
| Dario Spikic not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Marios Vrousai on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jakub Brabec on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tamás Nikitscher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 61% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Depleted offense for Gil Vicente: Only 36% of active goals share is available with key players Murilo de Souza Costa and Luís André Leite Esteves missing
- Tactical limitation: Both teams averaged only 3.6 and 4.0 shots on target per match in their recent games
- Historical draw trend: All 4 recorded head-to-head matches in the database ended in a draw
Risks
- Rio Ave missing key elements: Absence of Dario Spikic and Marios Vrousai leaves only 62% of their active goals share available
- Declining offensive metrics: Gil Vicente scored fewer goals recently (0.8 goals) than their season average of 1.5 goals
- Vulnerable away defense: Rio Ave conceded an average of 1.65 goals per game when playing away
All probabilities
Result
Gil Vicente52%
Draw30%
Rio Ave18%
Double chance
Gil Vicente or draw82%
Rio Ave or draw48%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
14%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rio Ave: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Gil Vicente with Zé Carlos: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Rio Ave with Omar Richards: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Gil Vicente: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Rio Ave: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1 · Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 26 W. Moreira da Costa
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 5 F. Cáseres
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 10 S. Garcia Gonzalez
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 29 Carlos Eduardo
Rio Ave
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 54 G. Liavas
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 6 N. Abby
- 90 D. Santos Nascimento
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 30 R. Galčík
- 8 R. da Silva Pae
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
Substitutes
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 6 J. Natário Ferreira
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 1 A. Picornell
- 23 H. Hernández Marrero
- 2 J. Silva
- 44 T. Ferreira
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 77 D. Špikić
- 22 K. Chamorro Rodríguez
- 14 J. Brabec
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 63 J. Lomboto Lompombi
- 25 R. Genuino Lobato
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
- 68 C. Valença
- 67 S. Alves
- 70 A. Wenck
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
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