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Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente - Rio Ave

08/09/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Gil Vicente
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Rio Ave
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
GVRA

Gil Vicente

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.23
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Murilo de Souza Costa on the bench (11 goals, 4 assists)
Luís André Leite Esteves not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists)
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
64% of goal output missing (only 35% available)

Rio Ave

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.84
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)
-0.05
Dario Spikic not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Marios Vrousai on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Jakub Brabec on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Tamás Nikitscher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 61% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.50
-0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rio Ave: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Gil Vicente with Zé Carlos: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Rio Ave with Omar Richards: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Gil Vicente: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Rio Ave: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Depleted offense for Gil Vicente: Only 36% of active goals share is available with key players Murilo de Souza Costa and Luís André Leite Esteves missing
  • Tactical limitation: Both teams averaged only 3.6 and 4.0 shots on target per match in their recent games
  • Historical draw trend: All 4 recorded head-to-head matches in the database ended in a draw
Risk Factors
  • Rio Ave missing key elements: Absence of Dario Spikic and Marios Vrousai leaves only 62% of their active goals share available
  • Declining offensive metrics: Gil Vicente scored fewer goals recently (0.8 goals) than their season average of 1.5 goals
  • Vulnerable away defense: Rio Ave conceded an average of 1.65 goals per game when playing away
Overview

Gil Vicente (10th place, 0 points) host Rio Ave (14th place, 0 points)

Liga Portugal fixture at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Match on August 9, 2026, 8:30 PM

Season opener for both teams in head-to-head clash

Form

Gil Vicente form: LWDLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Rio Ave form: DLDLD (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)

Gil Vicente on a negative trend after a recent loss

Rio Ave without a win in their last 5 matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Gil Vicente average 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded

At home, Gil Vicente score an average of 1.4 goals per match

Rio Ave score 1.03 goals on average and concede 1.68 goals

Rio Ave concede an average of 1.65 goals when playing away

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches recorded in the database

All 4 matches ended in a draw

Goal difference is balanced at 4:4 goals

The last match ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Santiago García González with 6 goals and 3 assists in 33 appearances

Joelson Fernandes has 1 goal and 3 assists this season

Carlos Eduardo Borges Parente scored 2 goals in 2 matches

Goalkeepers

Lucão starts in goal for Gil Vicente (8 appearances, avg. rating 6.66)

Ennio Van Der Gouw in goal for Rio Ave (10 appearances, avg. rating 6.87)

Gil Vicente kept 12 clean sheets this season, Rio Ave recorded 6

Influences

Home advantage for Gil Vicente at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Stadium stats show an average of 3.0 goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of games played at this venue

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