Match report →
Benfica – Academico Viseu2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Benfica
2.34
Total xG
3.19
Academico Viseu
0.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
Key factors
- Offensive form trend: Benfica is currently scoring 3.4 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 2.1
- Tactical dominance: Benfica recently averaged 8.2 shots on target and controlled play with 61% possession
- Home strength: The model calculates a 70% probability for a home win, supported by a strong home defense conceding only 0.68 goals per game
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Benfica has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Goalkeeper form: Samuel Soares is listed with a declining form trend (delta -1.03)
- Restricted data situation for Academico Viseu due to missing season data and head-to-head history
All probabilities
Result
Benfica70%
Draw20%
Academico Viseu11%
Double chance
Benfica or draw89%
Academico Viseu or draw30%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
7%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Benfica: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Benfica: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Benfica with Richard Ríos: 3.2 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
Lineups
Benfica 4-2-3-1 · Academico Viseu 4-3-3
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Academico Viseu
- 98 E. Ferreira da Silva
- 75 R. Ribeiro Vieira
- 41 A. Correia
- 44 R. Gomes Pereira
- 66 I. Milioransa
- 14 S. Messeguem
- 45 A. García Mestanza
- 8 C. Kahraman
- 31 J. de Sousa Crispim
- 33 A. Silva Filho
- 10 A. Zamora
Substitutes
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 1 A. Trubin
- 17 A. Dedić
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 20 R. Rios
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 16 M. Silva
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 73 Miguel Lebre Monteiro Figueiredo
- 33 Gabriel Queiroz
- 6 A. Castanheira Ceitil
- 18 C. Ferreira
- 29 A. Babić
- 5 P. Barcelos Silva
- 47 L. Gohi
- 1 M. Lavín Rodríguez
- 2 N. Michelis
- 11 D. Steczyk
- 21 T. Caldas Januário Carvalho Domingos
- 22 N. Mortimer Moreno
- 78 B. Macedo da Silva
- 58 M. Santos Sampaio
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