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Porto – Alverca2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Porto
1.91
Total xG
2.56
Alverca
0.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Porto | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.77x league average) | +1.10 | |
| Low-scoring league (2 goals/match) | −0.50 | −0.50 |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Alberto Costa not in squad (1 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Deniz Gül on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Oskar Pietuszewski not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Mora on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Kaiky Marques Naves not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 78% available) |
Key factors
- Extremely stable defense: Porto's defense concedes an average of only 0.53 goals per game this season
- Tactical dominance: Porto averaged 58% possession and 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Weakened visitors: Alverca plays without Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos, leaving only 79% of their usual goal threat available
Risks
- Low offensive threat: Alverca averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Away weakness: Alverca concede an average of 1.71 goals in away games
- Limited data availability for weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Porto66%
Draw23%
Alverca11%
Double chance
Porto or draw89%
Alverca or draw34%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
2:0
14%
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto with Pepê: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Porto: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Alverca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Alverca with Isaac James: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Alverca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Porto 4-3-3 · Alverca 3-4-3
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 12 Z. Sanusi
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 22 A. Varela
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 14 S. Baseya
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 33 N. Meupiyou Menadjou
- 2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
- 25 I. Baroni Boetto
- 6 D. Gui
- 12 I. James
- 10 Chiquinho
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Substitutes
- 16 I. Hwang
- 21 D. Prpić
- 13 P. Rosario
- 24 J. Santos da Costa
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 27 D. Gül
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 74 F. Moura
- 6 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 18 N. Pérez
- 50 J. Oliveira Afonso
- 57 D. Cunha
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 17 S. Merheg Enciso
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
- 8 V. Silva Moreira
- 18 Z. Kessary
- 15 I. de La Caridad Caldeira dos Santos
- 91 J. da Siqueira
- 19 M. Essimi Ateba
- 30 Abderrahmane Soumare
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