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Liga Portugal

Porto - Alverca

08/09/2026, 05:00 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Porto
1.9
Total xG
2.6
Alverca
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

14%

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
PORALV

Porto

Attack strength (1.77x league average)
+1.10
Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.38
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap)
+0.09
Alberto Costa not in squad (1 goals, 8 assists)
Deniz GĂŒl on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Oskar Pietuszewski not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Rodrigo Mora on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Alverca

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap)
-0.07
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Kaiky Marques Naves not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.50
-0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Porto with PepĂȘ: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Porto: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Alverca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Alverca with Isaac James: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Alverca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

23%

Away Win

11%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

89%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Extremely stable defense: Porto's defense concedes an average of only 0.53 goals per game this season
  • Tactical dominance: Porto averaged 58% possession and 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Weakened visitors: Alverca plays without Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos, leaving only 79% of their usual goal threat available
Risk Factors
  • Low offensive threat: Alverca averaged only 2.8 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Away weakness: Alverca concede an average of 1.71 goals in away games
  • Limited data availability for weather conditions
Overview

Porto host Alverca at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo

Liga Portugal match on August 9, 2026, 6:00 PM

Porto are clear favorites with a 66% win probability calculated by the model

Both teams start this league phase with zero points

Form

Porto show strong form with the string WWWLW

The home team recorded 4 wins and 1 loss recently

Alverca are struggling with the form LWLDL

The visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Porto score an average of 1.94 goals and concede only 0.53 goals per game

In 17 home games they achieved 12 clean sheets and conceded just 6 goals (0.35 avg)

Alverca score an average of 1.00 goal and concede 1.71 goals away from home

The visitors managed only 6 clean sheets in 34 season matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches between the teams so far

Porto won both encounters, scoring a total of 4 goals

Alverca are yet to score a goal against Porto

The last match ended in a 1-0 win for Porto on May 2, 2026

Key Players

William Gomes scored 8 goals in 28 appearances this season

Victor Froholdt recorded 6 goals and 7 assists with an average rating of 6.99

Figueiredo is Alverca's biggest threat with 6 goals scored this season

Goalkeepers

Diogo Costa plays in goal for Porto and shows a rising form trend

Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira is Alverca's goalkeeper with a declining form trend

Porto recorded 21 clean sheets this season

Alverca managed only 6 clean sheets

Influences

Porto are extremely strong at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo with 12 home wins in 17 games

In the 5 games played at this stadium there was an average of 2.0 goals per game

The stadium pitch surface is grass

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