Match report →
Estoril – Famalicão1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Estoril
0.88
Total xG
2.19
Famalicão
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estoril | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.87 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.31 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.31 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Felix Bacher not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Pedro Amaral not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gustavo Sá not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Justin de Haas not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Rafa Soares not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Simon Elisor not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Léo Realpe not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Famalicão is unbeaten in their last 5 games showing stable form, while Estoril's goal production has stalled lately (0.6)
- The historical dominance of the visitors is evident with 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-head matches and a 9:2 goal difference
- Famalicão boasts an outstanding defense with 17 clean sheets recorded this season
Risks
- Famalicão is missing Gustavo Sá, Justin de Haas, Rafa Soares, Simon Elisor, and Léo Realpe, leaving only 62% of their goal threat active
- Estoril averaged only 3.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Famalicão concedes significantly more goals away from home (avg 1.42) compared to their home average (0.55)
All probabilities
Result
Estoril23%
Draw32%
Famalicão45%
Double chance
Estoril or draw55%
Famalicão or draw77%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:1
13%
0:0
13%
0:2
10%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- Estoril with André Lacximicant: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Famalicão: 83% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Estoril: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Estoril: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Estoril 4-2-3-1 · Famalicão 4-2-3-1
Estoril
- 1 J. Robles Blázquez
- 2 R. Sánchez Sendra
- 4 F. Reis Ferreira
- 15 I. Sierra Arnal
- 3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
- 8 M. da Silva Rocha
- 5 A. Tsoungui
- 99 R. Guitane
- 12 J. Antunes Carvalho
- 7 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
- 14 Y. Begraoui
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 28 P. Bondo Francisco
- 6 T. van de Looi
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 23 G. Bastião Dias
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Substitutes
- 98 F. Garcia Andrade
- 22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
- 23 D. Aranha Dias
- 17 A. Ramos das Neves
- 90 T. Brito
- 16 M. Turk
- 19 T. Parente
- 6 A. Orellana Gómez
- 18 G. Faria Costa
- 80 L. Viegas Abreu Campos Gomes
- 42 J. Arnolin
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 18 R. Beney
- 91 R. Silva Almeida
- 30 V. Serafimović
- 11 Ó. Aranda Subiela
- 21 T. Szücs
- 36 M. Mattara Colombo
- 5 L. Meyer
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