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Liga Portugal

Estoril - Famalicão

08/07/2026, 07:15 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Estoril
0.9
Total xG
2.2
Famalicão
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

0:0

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
ESTFAM

Estoril

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.87
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.31
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.31
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.23
Felix Bacher not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Pedro Amaral not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Famalicão

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.22
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
+0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Gustavo Sá not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Justin de Haas not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Rafa Soares not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Simon Elisor not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Léo Realpe not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Estoril with André Lacximicant: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Famalicão: 83% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Estoril: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 5
    Estoril: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

32%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Famalicão is unbeaten in their last 5 games showing stable form, while Estoril's goal production has stalled lately (0.6)
  • The historical dominance of the visitors is evident with 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-head matches and a 9:2 goal difference
  • Famalicão boasts an outstanding defense with 17 clean sheets recorded this season
Risk Factors
  • Famalicão is missing Gustavo Sá, Justin de Haas, Rafa Soares, Simon Elisor, and Léo Realpe, leaving only 62% of their goal threat active
  • Estoril averaged only 3.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Famalicão concedes significantly more goals away from home (avg 1.42) compared to their home average (0.55)
Overview

Estoril host Famalicão

Liga Portugal match on August 7, 2026, 8:15 PM

The match takes place at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Mathematical analysis favors the away side with a 45% win probability

Form

Estoril's recent form is LLDDL

The home side recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Famalicão's form curve is DWDDW

The visitors remained unbeaten with 2 wins and 3 draws

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Estoril score an average of 1.59 goals per game and concede 1.68 goals this season

In home games, Estoril average 1.61 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded

Famalicão score an average of 1.24 goals per game and concede only 0.85 goals defensively

Away from home, Famalicão concede an average of 1.42 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 1 while Famalicão won 3

The goal difference stands at 2:9 against Estoril

The last meeting on April 26, 2026, ended in a 0-1 away win for Famalicão

Key Players

Yanis Begraoui has scored 20 goals this season with an average rating of 7.04

João Carvalho contributed 6 goals and 12 assists this season

Jordan Holsgrove has registered 1 goal and 7 assists

Gil Dias scored 4 goals and provided 7 assists this season

Sorriso has 5 goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.05

Mathias de Amorim has recorded 4 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Martin Turk is in goal for Estoril and has played 3 matches this season

The goalkeeper holds an average season rating of 6.86

Lazar Carević protects Famalicão's goal and completed all 34 matches this season

Famalicão achieved a total of 17 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota on grass

At this stadium, the average total goals stand at 2.4 per game

Estoril average 1.61 goals scored on their home turf

Both teams scored in 60% of the recent matches played at this venue

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