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Estrela Amadora – Sporting CP2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Estrela Amadora
0.98
Total xG
3.44
Sporting CP
2.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estrela Amadora | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (3.21x league average) | +2.50 | |
| Low-scoring league (1.5 goals/match) | −1.00 | −1.00 |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.93 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Paulo Moreira not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Pinho not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Stefan Leković not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 54% available) | ||
| Luis Suárez on the bench (28 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Pedro Gonçalves not in squad (13 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Francisco Trincão not in squad (7 goals, 11 assists) | ||
| Maxi Araújo not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Daniel Bragança not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Hidemasa Morita not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Zeno Debast not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 77% of goal output missing (only 25% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: Sporting CP averaged 6.6 shots on target and 63.4% possession recently, compared to Estrela Amadora's average of only 2.8 shots on target
- Flawless historical record: Sporting CP won all 4 previous meetings between the two teams
- Expected goals according to the model: Predictions value Sporting CP at 2.47 expected goals, indicating a highly dominant role
Risks
- Severely weakened away offense: Only 25% of the regular starting goal threat is active due to the absence of Luis Suárez and Pedro Gonçalves
- Weakened home squad: Due to missing players, Estrela Amadora only has 54% of its normal goal threat available
- Limited data availability for home goalkeeper statistics
All probabilities
Result
Estrela Amadora12%
Draw19%
Sporting CP69%
Double chance
Estrela Amadora or draw31%
Sporting CP or draw88%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
1:1
9%
0:3
8%
1:3
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Sporting CP: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Estrela Amadora with Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Sporting CP with Georgios Vagiannidis: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 4.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Sporting CP: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Estrela Amadora 4-2-3-1 · Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 4 B. Schappo
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 39 E. Doué
- 99 A. Marcus
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 10 I. Stoica
- 37 L. Antonetti
Sporting CP
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 25 G. Inácio
- 50 R. Amores Dias
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 17 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 7 F. Ioannidis
Substitutes
- 9 S. van Hooijdonk
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 79 A. Atanasov Chernev
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 8 R. Oliveira Botelho
- 28 T. Moustier
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 72 H.Poniewas
- 93 B. Loussakou Souza
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
- 12 J. Neves Virginia
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
- 26 O. Diomande
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 4 S. Andersen
- 41 D. Calai Silva
- 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 28 J. Derry
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