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Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora - Sporting CP

08/08/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Estrela Amadora
1.0
Total xG
3.4
Sporting CP
2.5
Most Likely Scores

0:2

10%

1:2

10%

1:1

9%

0:3

8%

1:3

8%
What influences the xG?
EASC

Estrela Amadora

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.93
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Paulo Moreira not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Rodrigo Pinho not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Stefan Leković not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 54% available)

Sporting CP

Attack strength (3.21x league average)
+2.50
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (3 vs 2.5 season average)
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)
+0.15
Luis SuĂĄrez on the bench (28 goals, 6 assists)
Pedro Gonçalves not in squad (13 goals, 8 assists)
Francisco TrincĂŁo not in squad (7 goals, 11 assists)
Maxi AraĂșjo not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
Daniel Bragança not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
Hidemasa Morita not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Zeno Debast not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
77% of goal output missing (only 25% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (1.5 goals/match)
-1.00
-1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting CP: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Sporting CP: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Estrela Amadora with Otavio Manoel Galdino Fernandes: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Sporting CP with Georgios Vagiannidis: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 4.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Sporting CP: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

12%

Draw

19%

Away Win

69%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

31%

Away or Draw

88%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: Sporting CP averaged 6.6 shots on target and 63.4% possession recently, compared to Estrela Amadora's average of only 2.8 shots on target
  • Flawless historical record: Sporting CP won all 4 previous meetings between the two teams
  • Expected goals according to the model: Predictions value Sporting CP at 2.47 expected goals, indicating a highly dominant role
Risk Factors
  • Severely weakened away offense: Only 25% of the regular starting goal threat is active due to the absence of Luis SuĂĄrez and Pedro Gonçalves
  • Weakened home squad: Due to missing players, Estrela Amadora only has 54% of its normal goal threat available
  • Limited data availability for home goalkeeper statistics
Overview

Estrela Amadora (15th place, 0 points) host Sporting CP (16th place, 0 points) at the Estådio José Gomes

Liga Portugal fixture on August 8, 2026, 8:30 PM

The away side enters this early-season match as the clear favorite

Form

Sporting CP is in strong shape with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches (DDWWW)

Estrela Amadora is winless in 5 matches, recording 3 losses and 2 draws (LLLDD)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting CP boasts a strong attack, averaging 2.62 goals scored per game

Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 1.65 goals per match

On the road, Sporting CP scores 2.53 goals and concedes just 0.87 goals on average

Head-to-Head

Sporting CP won all 4 previous head-to-head matches

The historical goal difference stands at 13-1 in favor of Sporting CP

Their last meeting on April 11, 2026, ended in a 1-0 away victory for Sporting CP

Key Players

Abraham Marcus scored 5 goals and provided 5 assists in 31 appearances

Ianis Stoica contributed 3 goals and 2 assists

Geny Catamo scored 6 goals with an average rating of 7.05

Eduardo Quaresma stands out with 2 goals, 2 assists, and a 7.16 rating

Fotis Ioannidis scored 3 goals with a rating of 6.83

Goalkeepers

Rui Silva played 32 games for Sporting CP with an average rating of 6.94

Influences

Estrela Amadora scores an average of 1.11 goals at home

Matches at the Estådio José Gomes average 2.4 goals per game

The match is played on a natural grass surface

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