Match report →
Moreirense – Sporting Braga2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Moreirense
1.11
Total xG
2.46
Sporting Braga
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Moreirense | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.53 | |
| Low-scoring league (2 goals/match) | −0.50 | −0.50 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Alan de Souza Guimarães not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Travassos not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 75% of goal output missing (only 36% available) | ||
| Pau Víctor on the bench (10 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Víctor Gómez on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Gabri Martínez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Vítor Carvalho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| João Moutinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 68% available) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Moreirense: Only 37% of usual goal threat is available as key players like Alan de Souza Guimarães and Travassos are missing
- Sporting Braga recently averaged 4.2 shots on target with 60.2% ball possession
- Historical dominance: Sporting Braga won all 4 recent head-to-head matches against Moreirense with an 8:3 goal difference
Risks
- Squad weakening for Braga: Pau Víctor is missing, leaving only 69% of the usual goal threat available
- Fatigue factor for Sporting Braga: Only 3 days of rest since the last game on August 6
- Low-scoring stadium history: An average of only 1.6 goals per game were scored recently in this stadium
All probabilities
Result
Moreirense29%
Draw30%
Sporting Braga41%
Double chance
Moreirense or draw59%
Sporting Braga or draw71%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Moreirense with Mateja Stjepanović: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Sporting Braga: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Sporting Braga: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Moreirense 4-3-3 · Sporting Braga 3-4-3
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 23 N. John
- 65 G. Liberato Tomas Aquino
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 89 A. Fernandes Lopes Vieira
- 9 A. Duville-Parsemain
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 21 R. Horta
Substitutes
- 20 J. Fins Veloso
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 25 A. Cunha Almeida
- 30 J. Gower
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 44 M. Dacosta Gonzales
- 77 K. Mottoh
- 31 Pedro Jesus Perez Tudela
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 37 L. Barišić
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 10 Pau Victor
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 5 L. Cruz Lelo
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
- 90 L. Teixeira Pinto
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