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Liga Portugal

Moreirense - Sporting Braga

08/09/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Moreirense
1.1
Total xG
2.5
Sporting Braga
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

0:1

10%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
MORSB

Moreirense

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.53
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.05
Alan de Souza Guimarães not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
Travassos not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
75% of goal output missing (only 36% available)

Sporting Braga

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.01
Pau Víctor on the bench (10 goals, 4 assists)
Víctor Gómez on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Gabri Martínez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Vítor Carvalho on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
João Moutinho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.50
-0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Moreirense with Mateja Stjepanović: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sporting Braga: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Sporting Braga: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

30%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Moreirense: Only 37% of usual goal threat is available as key players like Alan de Souza Guimarães and Travassos are missing
  • Sporting Braga recently averaged 4.2 shots on target with 60.2% ball possession
  • Historical dominance: Sporting Braga won all 4 recent head-to-head matches against Moreirense with an 8:3 goal difference
Risk Factors
  • Squad weakening for Braga: Pau Víctor is missing, leaving only 69% of the usual goal threat available
  • Fatigue factor for Sporting Braga: Only 3 days of rest since the last game on August 6
  • Low-scoring stadium history: An average of only 1.6 goals per game were scored recently in this stadium
Overview

Moreirense host Sporting Braga at the Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

First match of the season for both teams in Liga Portugal on August 9, 2026, 8:30 PM

The visitors from Braga arrive as favorites

Form

Moreirense has a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games (Form-String: WLWLD)

Sporting Braga is unbeaten with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches (Form-String: DDWWW)

The visitors show stable early-season form

Statistics

Moreirense scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 1.44 goals per game last season

Sporting Braga impressed with an average of 1.88 goals scored and only 1.06 conceded

In home matches, Moreirense conceded an average of 1.17 goals

Head-to-Head

Sporting Braga dominates the head-to-head history with 4 wins in 4 games

The goal difference stands at 8:3 in favor of Braga

The last direct meeting ended in a 1:0 victory for Braga on April 4, 2026

Key Players

Rodrigo Alonso Martín scored 3 goals and provided 3 assists in 26 appearances, with a rating of 6.71

Nile John provided 1 assist in 14 games with an average rating of 6.62

Kevyn Monteiro played 10 matches and achieved a rating of 6.92

Ricardo Horta scored 14 goals and provided 4 assists in 28 games, with an outstanding rating of 7.58

Fran Navarro scored 6 goals in 29 matches with a rating of 6.58

Gustaf Lagerbielke played 28 times, scoring 2 goals and achieving a rating of 6.92

Influences

An average of 1.6 goals were scored in the last 5 matches at the Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Both teams scored in only 20% of the games

Moreirense plays on their usual natural grass surface

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