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Liga Portugal

Marítimo - Casa Pia

08/08/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Marítimo
1.0
Total xG
1.9
Casa Pia
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

12%

2:0

7%
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Casa Pia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Casa Pia: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Casa Pia with Cassiano: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

35%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

60%

Under 1.5

40%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Only 24% of Casa Pia's usual starting eleven goals share is available, with Jérémy Livolant, Gaizka Larrazabal, and João Marques missing
  • Casa Pia averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Casa Pia's goal production has stalled at 0.6 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.0
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available for Marítimo regarding their current form and season statistics
  • Casa Pia concedes an extremely high average of 2.21 goals per away match
  • The model predicts a low-scoring match with only a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals
Overview

Marítimo host Casa Pia

Liga Portugal match on August 8, 2026, 3:30 PM

Marítimo sits in 10th place and Casa Pia in 14th place

The mathematical analysis predicts a tight game with 34% home win and 35% draw

Form

Casa Pia shows a mixed form curve with the sequence LLLWD

Their last result was a 1-1 draw against Rio Ave

In their last 5 matches, the visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Casa Pia scored 31 goals in 34 season matches

This averages to 0.91 goals scored per game and 1.68 goals conceded

The visitors failed to score in 15 out of 34 matches

Furthermore, Casa Pia managed only 7 clean sheets throughout the season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio do Marítimo

Casa Pia concedes an average of 2.21 goals in away matches

The visitors score an average of only 0.93 goals on the road

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