Match report →
Marítimo – Casa Pia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Marítimo
1.00
Total xG
1.95
Casa Pia
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
Key factors
- Only 24% of Casa Pia's usual starting eleven goals share is available, with Jérémy Livolant, Gaizka Larrazabal, and João Marques missing
- Casa Pia averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Casa Pia's goal production has stalled at 0.6 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.0
Risks
- Limited data available for Marítimo regarding their current form and season statistics
- Casa Pia concedes an extremely high average of 2.21 goals per away match
- The model predicts a low-scoring match with only a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Marítimo34%
Draw35%
Casa Pia31%
Double chance
Marítimo or draw69%
Casa Pia or draw66%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.560%
Under 1.540%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
12%
2:0
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Casa Pia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Casa Pia: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Casa Pia with Cassiano: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Marítimo 4-3-3 · Casa Pia 4-3-3
Marítimo
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 4 R. Gomes Fernandes
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 18 V. Danilović
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 11 M. Diouri
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
Casa Pia
- 31 A. Nogueira Gomes
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 43 David Sousa
- 5 A. Conté
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 80 L. Ofori
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 13 O. Osundina
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
- 10 D. Costa Rocha
Substitutes
- 22 G. Szalai
- 25 J. Santiago
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 15 T. Tavares
- 27 S. Bamba
- 77 J. Teixeira Silva
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
- 68 N. Batista
- 16 F. Silva
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 20 A. Jatta
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 22 D. Grilo Azevedo
- 27 K. Rocha Lima
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 99 C. Mendes Vicente
- 95 I. Mandić
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 11 R. Blanco Juncal
- 59 A. Dafe
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