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Liga Portugal

Vitória Guimarães - Arouca

08/08/2026, 05:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Vitória Guimarães
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Arouca
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
VGARO

Vitória Guimarães

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.59
Attack strength (1.32x league average)
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Noah Jose Saviolo not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Diogo Sousa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Arouca

Attack strength (1.89x league average)
+1.22
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.17
Pablo Gozálbez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Bas Kuipers not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (1.5 goals/match)
-1.00
-1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória Guimarães with João Mendes: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Vitória Guimarães: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Arouca: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Arouca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Arouca: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

29%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Form trend: Arouca enter in strong form with two consecutive wins while Vitória Guimarães suffered three straight defeats
  • Tactical comparison: Arouca averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.4 for the hosts
  • Matchup advantage: Arouca are currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals on average than their season average of 1.4 goals
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Arouca conceded an average of 2.43 goals per away game last season
  • Offensive struggles: Vitória Guimarães' goal production has stalled recently averaging 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
  • Low threat: The hosts averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Vitória Guimarães host Arouca at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Season opener in the Liga Portugal on August 8, 2026, 6:00 PM

Balanced starting position at the beginning of the new season

Both teams start this season from scratch with zero points

Form

Vitória Guimarães with a declining trend and three consecutive losses

Form across all competitions: WWLLL

Most recently they suffered a 0-2 away defeat against Nacional

Arouca show strong form with three wins in their last five matches

Form across all competitions: WLDWW

The visitors won their last match 3-1 at home against Tondela

Statistics

Vitória Guimarães scored an average of 1.15 goals and conceded 1.5 goals per match last season

At home their defense was more stable conceding only 0.83 goals on average

Arouca were more offensive scoring 1.38 goals but also conceding 1.88 goals per match

Away from home the visitors conceded an average of 2.43 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Balanced record from the last four head-to-head matches

Each team managed to win once with two draws

The last encounter ended in a 3-2 home victory for Arouca

In total 6 goals were scored by each team across these four matches

Key Players

Samu is a key pillar in the hosts' midfield with 7 goals and 3 assists

Gustavo Silva contributed 5 goals and 2 assists last season

For Arouca Alfonso Trezza stands out with 9 goals and 3 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Oliwier Zych is in the starting lineup for the hosts

Ignacio de Arruabarrena guards Arouca's goal and played 16 season matches

Vitória Guimarães kept 10 clean sheets in the previous season

Arouca recorded 7 clean sheets during the same period

Influences

Home advantage favors Vitória Guimarães with only 19 goals conceded in 23 home matches

An average of 2.6 goals were scored in recent matches at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

The model prediction suggests a tight match with slight advantages for the visitors

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