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Vitória Guimarães – Arouca0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Vitória Guimarães
1.33
Total xG
2.70
Arouca
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória Guimarães | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.89x league average) | +1.22 | |
| Low-scoring league (1.5 goals/match) | −1.00 | −1.00 |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.59 | |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | +0.47 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Noah Jose Saviolo not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Diogo Sousa not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Pablo Gozálbez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bas Kuipers not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form trend: Arouca enter in strong form with two consecutive wins while Vitória Guimarães suffered three straight defeats
- Tactical comparison: Arouca averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to 3.4 for the hosts
- Matchup advantage: Arouca are currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals on average than their season average of 1.4 goals
Risks
- Away weakness: Arouca conceded an average of 2.43 goals per away game last season
- Offensive struggles: Vitória Guimarães' goal production has stalled recently averaging 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
- Low threat: The hosts averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Vitória Guimarães35%
Draw29%
Arouca36%
Double chance
Vitória Guimarães or draw64%
Arouca or draw65%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vitória Guimarães with João Mendes: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Vitória Guimarães: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Arouca: 80% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Arouca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Arouca: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1 · Arouca 4-2-3-1
Vitória Guimarães
- 48 O. Zych
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
- 13 João Mendes
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 11 G. da Silva Cunha
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 7 O. Camara
- 24 A. Ndoye
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 6 E. van Ee
- 8 T. Fukui
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 14 H. Lee
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Substitutes
- 44 L. Doucet
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 6 M. Mitrovic
- 18 T. Gomes Arcanjo
- 22 J. Castillo Reyes
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 23 T. Strata
- 82 F. Lagos Dias
- 98 L. Furtado dos Santos
- 56 S. Verdi Oliveira Silva
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 5 B. Popović
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 89 P. Carvalho Santos
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
- 77 S. Park
- 71 M. da Silva Duarte
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