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Liga Portugal

Academico Viseu - Santa Clara

08/15/2026, 05:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Academico Viseu
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Santa Clara
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
AVSC

Academico Viseu

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.34

Santa Clara

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.14
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.11
Serginho not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Gabriel Silva not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
Gustavo Klismahn not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 62% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santa Clara with Luis Fernando: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

29%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Tactical approach: Academico Viseu was recently counter-oriented with 38% possession and averaged 4.0 shots on target
  • Offensive trend: Santa Clara is currently scoring more frequently with 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.1
  • Home advantage prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 50% win probability for Academico Viseu
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact for Santa Clara: Only 63% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with Serginho, Gabriel Silva, and Gustavo Klismahn missing
  • Defensive vulnerability: Both teams already conceded 2 goals each in their respective opening matches
Overview

Academico Viseu (6th place, 1 point) host Santa Clara (7th place, 1 point) at the Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Liga Portugal match on August 15, 2026, 6:00 PM

Both teams started the new season with a draw

The mathematical prediction gives the home side a 50% chance of winning

Form

Academico Viseu started with a 2-2 draw against Benfica

Home team form string: D (D = Draw)

Santa Clara recently secured a 2-2 draw against Nacional

Away team form across all competitions: WDWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors' form is stable with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 games

Statistics

Academico Viseu scored 2 goals and conceded 2 in their opening match

Santa Clara averaged 0.94 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game last season

The visitors conceded an average of 1.5 goals in away matches

The model predicts a 73% probability for over 1.5 goals in this fixture

Goalkeepers

Ewerton starts in goal for the hosts, having conceded 2 goals in the first match

Santa Clara relies on Lucas França in goal

The visitors kept 10 clean sheets last season, including 3 away from home

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

The model estimates a home advantage with 1.55 expected goals for Academico Viseu

Santa Clara is predicted to score 0.96 expected goals

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