🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Sporting CP - Vitória Guimarães

08/14/2026, 07:15 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Sporting CP
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Vitória Guimarães
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
SCVG

Sporting CP

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.23
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.22
Rising form (3.2 vs 2.5 season average)
+0.22
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Luis Suárez on the bench (28 goals, 6 assists)
Pedro Gonçalves not in squad (13 goals, 8 assists)
Francisco Trincão not in squad (7 goals, 11 assists)
Daniel Bragança not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
Hidemasa Morita not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
67% of goal output missing (only 37% available)

Vitória Guimarães

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Noah Jose Saviolo not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória Guimarães with João Mendes: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Sporting CP: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Sporting CP: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Sporting CP with Luís Guilherme: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Sporting CP: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Only 37% of goals share available, without Luis Suárez, Pedro Gonçalves, Francisco Trincão, Daniel Bragança and Hidemasa Morita
  • Tactical dominance: Sporting CP averaged 6.6 shots on target with 60% possession in recent matches
  • Offensive trend: Sporting CP currently score more frequently (3.2 goals per game) than their season average (2.5)
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Vitória Guimarães concede an average of 2.91 goals in away matches
  • Attack in slump: Vitória Guimarães' goal production has stalled at 0.6 per game compared to their season average of 1.2
Overview

Sporting CP host Vitória Guimarães at the Estádio José Alvalade

Liga Portugal match on August 14, 2026, 8:15 PM

Early season context with Sporting in 8th place (1 point) and the visitors in 17th place (0 points)

Form

Sporting CP show solid form (DWWWD) with a recent 2-2 draw

Vitória Guimarães are struggling with four losses in their last five matches (WLLLL)

Stats: Sporting CP with 3 wins and 2 draws, Vitória Guimarães with 1 win and 4 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting CP are offensively strong, averaging 2.62 goals scored per game

Vitória Guimarães are defensive vulnerable, conceding 1.5 goals per game overall and 2.91 in away matches

Sporting CP have a strong home record with 51 goals scored in 19 home matches

Head-to-Head

Historical record shows clear dominance for Sporting CP

From 4 head-to-head matches, Sporting CP won 3 and drew 1 (3-1-0)

The last meeting ended in a clear 5-1 home victory for Sporting CP on May 4, 2026

Key Players

Sporting CP rely on Maxi Araújo (5 goals, 4 assists) and Fotis Ioannidis (3 goals)

Geny Catamo is also key with 6 goals and 3 assists this season

Vitória Guimarães depend on Samu (7 goals, 3 assists) and Gustavo Silva (5 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Rui Silva guards the net for Sporting CP, keeping 15 clean sheets this season

Oliwier Zych is in goal for Vitória Guimarães, whose team secured 10 clean sheets overall

Influences

Home advantage at Estádio José Alvalade on grass

Venue stats show an average of 3.4 total goals per game

The model calculates a 54% home win probability and 1.70 expected home goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.