Liga Portugal
Alverca - Estrela Amadora
08/15/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.3
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
12%2:0
9%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Alverca
Estrela Amadora
The Lab
- 1Alverca with Sergi GĆ³mez SolĆ : 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Alverca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 3Estrela Amadora with Rodrigo Pinho: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
31%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Alverca will miss key players Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos (2 goals, 5 assists) and Kaiky Marques Naves from their lineup
- Both teams played highly counter-oriented in recent matches and averaged only 3.0 shots on target per game
- The mathematical model predicts a home result of win or draw for Alverca with a probability of 74%
Risk Factors
- Estrela Amadora must play without Paulo Moreira (3 goals) and Rodrigo Pinho (4 goals), leaving only 75% of their goal threat available
- Estrela Amadora concede a high average of 2.13 goals per match in away games
- Alverca's goal production is stagnant with a recent average of 0.6 goals compared to their season average of 1.03
Overview
Alverca host Estrela Amadora in the Liga Portugal
Match on August 15, 2026, 3:30 PM at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Alverca are in 18th place with 0 points after the first game
Estrela Amadora sit in 11th place with 1 point
Both teams seek stability early in the season
Form
Alverca's current form across all competitions is WLDLL
The home side recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in this period
Estrela Amadora have a form of LLDDD
The visitors achieved 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats recently
Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Alverca scored avg 1.03 goals and conceded avg 1.53 goals per match last season
In home matches Alverca averaged 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded
Estrela Amadora averaged 1.12 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded overall
In away games the visitors conceded a high average of 2.13 goals per match
Alverca recorded 6 clean sheets while Estrela Amadora managed 8
Head-to-Head
There have been 2 head-to-head matches between these teams
Both games ended in a draw with a goal difference of 3 to 3
The last encounter on January 31, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw
The historical record is completely balanced
Key Players
Figueiredo recorded 6 goals and 2 assists in 27 appearances with a rating of 7.01
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira contributed 2 goals and 4 assists in 20 matches
Nabil Touaizi has 1 goal and 5 assists across 33 games played
Stefan LekoviÄ scored 2 goals in 9 games as a defender with a rating of 7.1
Abraham Marcus has 5 goals, 5 assists and a rating of 7.04 in 31 matches
Ianis Stoica contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in 33 games
Goalkeepers
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira guards Alverca's goal with a season average rating of 6.89
His form trend is declining with an average rating of 6.39 over the last 5 matches
Alverca recorded 6 clean sheets overall this season
Estrela Amadora managed to keep a clean sheet 8 times this season
Influences
At Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, matches averaged 2.8 goals per game recently
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches
There were over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 home encounters
The game will be played on natural grass