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Liga Portugal

Arouca - Moreirense

08/16/2026, 05:00 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Arouca
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Moreirense
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
AROMOR

Arouca

Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.51
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.18
Pablo Gozálbez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Bas Kuipers not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.43x league average)
-0.67
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Alan de Souza Guimarães not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
Travassos not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Afonso Assis Cunha Almeida not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 56% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Moreirense with Mateja Stjepanović: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Arouca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Arouca: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Arouca: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Arouca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Arouca is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals per game) than their season average (1.4)
  • The mathematical model projects a strong advantage for Arouca with a 57% home win probability
  • Moreirense's attack is weakened with only 56% of their regular starting strength available due to missing players
Risk Factors
  • Moreirense must play without key offensive assets, as Alan de Souza Guimarães (5G/5A) and Travassos (5G/3A) are not in the lineup
  • Arouca's defense has shown vulnerabilities this season, conceding an average of 1.88 goals per match
  • Moreirense averaged 10.4 total shots in recent games, showing they can still generate threat despite lineup rotations
Overview

Arouca host Moreirense at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Liga Portugal fixture on August 16, 2026, 6:00 PM

Mid-table clash between 6th place and 8th place

Form

Arouca shows rising form with 3 consecutive wins in recent matches

Form string for Arouca: LDWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Moreirense is winless in 2 games, recording a draw in their last match

Form string for Moreirense: LWLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Arouca averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 goals conceded per season match

Moreirense averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game

Arouca's home stats show 1.35 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per match

Moreirense concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 2 wins for each side in 4 head-to-head matches

Goal difference of 3 to 5 goals against Arouca

The last match on March 21, 2026, ended in a 1-0 away win for Arouca

Key Players

Alfonso Trezza has already scored 9 goals for his team this season

Iván Barbero shows strong forward presence with a rising form trend and 8 goals

Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga is a dangerous defender for Moreirense with 4 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Ignacio de Arruabarrena guarded the goal in 16 appearances for the home team this season

André Ferreira has made 22 appearances for Moreirense this season

Arouca kept 7 clean sheets this season, while Moreirense achieved 9 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Venue history shows a high-scoring trend with an average of 3.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 matches at this venue

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