🇵🇹

Liga Portugal

Casa Pia - Benfica

08/17/2026, 07:15 PM

0 : 7
Expected Goals
Casa Pia
0.9
Total xG
2.7
Benfica
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

0:2

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
CPBEN

Casa Pia

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.66
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 3, 13 places gap)
-0.14
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average)
-0.12
Gaizka Larrazabal not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
João Marques not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
83% of goal output missing (only 19% available)

Benfica

Attack strength (1.58x league average)
+0.53
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (3 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.27
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 16, 13 places gap)
+0.11
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Benfica: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Benfica: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Casa Pia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Casa Pia: 72% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

18%

Draw

27%

Away Win

55%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

45%

Away or Draw

82%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • CRITICAL: Only 19% of Casa Pia's usual starting lineup strength is available without Gaizka Larrazabal and João Marques
  • Benfica averaged a strong 8.2 shots on target per match in their recent fixtures
  • The mathematical model predicts a high away win probability of 55% for Benfica
Risk Factors
  • Benfica have had a shorter recovery period of only 4 days since their last match
  • The historical low-scoring nature of Estádio Pina Manique with just 1.2 goals per game poses a risk of a low-scoring stalemate
Overview

Casa Pia host Benfica at the Estádio Pina Manique on August 17, 2026, 8:15 PM

The hosts are currently in 16th place with zero points, while Benfica sit in 10th place with one point

Both sides are looking for their first victory of the new Liga Portugal season

Form

Casa Pia show a weak form trend with a record of LLWDL

Their last match ended in a 0-1 away defeat against Marítimo

Benfica enter the match with a form record of LWWDD

Their most recent game was a 1-1 away draw against Hearts

Statistics

Casa Pia average 0.91 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per match

Benfica score an average of 2.18 goals while conceding only 0.74 goals per game

The home team kept seven clean sheets, whereas the visitors recorded 14 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

Out of four head-to-head matches, Casa Pia have won one, Benfica have won one, and two ended in a draw

The goal difference stands at 6-7 in favor of Benfica

The last meeting on April 6, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

David Sousa anchors the defense for Casa Pia with a season average rating of 6.79

Vangelis Pavlidis is Benfica's top attacking threat with 23 goals this season

Gianluca Prestianni has contributed six assists for Benfica in this campaign

Goalkeepers

Samuel Soares achieved a strong average rating of 7.54 in two appearances for Benfica

Casa Pia recorded seven clean sheets this season, while Benfica managed 14 clean sheets

Influences

Casa Pia's home advantage is limited as they average only 0.9 home goals scored per match

Games at the Estádio Pina Manique have historically seen very few goals, averaging 1.2 per match

The match will be played on a grass pitch

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.