Match report →
Sporting Braga – Gil Vicente1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Sporting Braga
1.59
Total xG
2.46
Gil Vicente
0.87
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting Braga | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.83 | |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.66 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.60 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.49 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.38 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.33 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Demir Ege Tıknaz on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Héctor Hernández on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 51% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Gil Vicente scores 0.67 goals per game away in the league, Sporting Braga 1.0 at home
- Possession: Sporting Braga averages 57.2% possession over the last 5 games, Gil Vicente 52.6%
Risks
- Form: Sporting Braga has 1 win and 3 losses from its last 5 games
- Head-to-head: Gil Vicente has won 2 of the 4 previous meetings, Sporting Braga 1
All probabilities
Result
Sporting Braga53%
Draw28%
Gil Vicente19%
Double chance
Sporting Braga or draw81%
Gil Vicente or draw47%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.59 : 0.87, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Sporting Braga: 4 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Gil Vicente: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sporting Braga 3-4-2-1 · Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 29 G. Baptiste
- 10 Pau Victor
- 21 R. Horta
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 19 J. Older Wind
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 10 S. Garcia Gonzalez
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 99 M. Kaba
Substitutes
- 23 D. Huseinbasic
- 37 L. Barišić
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
- 5 F. Cáseres
- 6 J. Natário Ferreira
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 29 Carlos Eduardo
- 1 A. Picornell
- 23 H. Hernández Marrero
- 16 G. Braga Figueiredo
- 2 J. Silva
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 9 W. dos Santos França
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