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Liga Portugal

Nacional - Estoril

08/16/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Nacional
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Estoril
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
NACEST

Nacional

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.07
JesĂșs RamĂ­rez not in squad (18 goals, 0 assists)
José Gomes not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Paulinho BĂłia not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Alan Nuñez not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
67% of goal output missing (only 44% available)

Estoril

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.25
Jordan Holsgrove not in squad (1 goals, 7 assists)
Felix Bacher not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Pedro Amaral not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Estoril with André Lacximicant: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Estoril: 91% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Yanis Begraoui: 3 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Nacional with João Aurélio: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

32%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Squad weakness: Only 45% of goal threat available, without JesĂșs RamĂ­rez, JosĂ© Gomes, Paulinho BĂłia, Alan Nuñez
  • Form trends: Nacional shows a positive trend (1.4 goals recently) compared to Estoril's slump (0.8 goals)
  • Historical edge: Estoril remains undefeated in all previous head-to-head matches
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
  • Goalkeeper risk: Limited statistical data available for Nacional's starting keeper Renato Marin
Overview

Nacional (9th place, 1 point) hosts Estoril (13th place, 1 point) at EstĂĄdio da Madeira

Liga Portugal match on August 16, 2026, 3:30 PM

The mathematical model predicts a close match with 1.18 to 1.12 expected goals

Form

Nacional shows a form of WLLWD with 2 wins and 1 draw

Their recent average of 1.4 goals is higher than their season average of 1.2

Estoril is struggling with a form of LDDLD and 0 wins in the last 5 games

Their scoring has dropped to 0.8 goals recently compared to 1.6 in the season

Statistics

Nacional scored 37 and conceded 45 goals over 34 matches

Estoril scored 54 goals but conceded 57 times

Estoril struggles defensively on the road, conceding 1.94 goals on average

Head-to-Head

Estoril has been historically dominant in this matchup

Out of 4 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 2 with 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 0-1 victory for Estoril

Key Players

Ze Vitor anchors the defense with a 7.00 rating and 4 goals

Liziero directs the midfield with a 7.04 rating and 4 assists

LĂ©o Santos contributed 3 goals with a 6.85 average rating

JoĂŁo Carvalho impresses with a 7.14 rating, 6 goals, and 12 assists

Yanis Begraoui remains dangerous with 20 goals and a 7.04 rating

Rafik Guitane contributes with 3 goals and 5 assists

Not nominated: Jordan Holsgrove (1T/7A), Felix Bacher (2T/0A), Pedro Amaral (0T/2A)

Goalkeepers

Joel Robles has played 31 games for Estoril

Renato Marin starts for Nacional with limited statistical data available

Joel Robles has a declining form rating of 6.40 in recent matches

Influences

The match takes place on the grass pitch of EstĂĄdio da Madeira

Venue history shows a low-scoring trend of 1.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in only 20% of previous games at this venue

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