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Liga Portugal

Famalicão - Marítimo

08/16/2026, 07:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Famalicão
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Marítimo
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
FAMMAR

Famalicão

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.46
Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.32
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Gil Dias on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists)
Gustavo Sá not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Justin de Haas not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Rafa Soares not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Simon Elisor not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
49% of goal output missing (only 46% available)

Marítimo

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.58
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Famalicão: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

31%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Only 46% of Famalicão's attacking threat available due to the absence of Gil Dias, Gustavo Sá, Justin de Haas, Rafa Soares, and Simon Elisor
  • Famalicão remained defensively stable in recent matches and is unbeaten in 5 games
  • The mathematical model predicts a close encounter with a 34% home win and 36% away win probability
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head matches between the two teams in the provided dataset
  • Limited data availability for Marítimo player statistics
  • Famalicão's halting goal production, averaging 1.3 goals per game recently compared to a season average of 1.4
Overview

Famalicão host Marítimo at the Estádio Municipal de Famalicão

Liga Portugal match on August 16, 2026, 7:30 PM

Famalicão sit in 12th place with 1 point, while Marítimo occupy 4th place with 3 points

Form

Famalicão are unbeaten in 5 matches with a form of WDDWD

Home side recorded 2 wins and 3 draws in this period

Marítimo started their season with a win (W)

Statistics

Famalicão average 1.24 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded per match

At home, Famalicão concede only 0.55 goals per game on average

Marítimo have scored 1.0 goal and conceded 0.0 goals so far

Venue averages 1.8 goals per match with an Over 2.5 rate of 20%

Head-to-Head

No head-to-head matches recorded in the provided dataset

Key Players

Sorriso scored 5 goals and provided 4 assists in 33 appearances

Mathias de Amorim has 4 goals and 2 assists with a rising form trend

Rodrigo Pinheiro contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in 29 matches

Goalkeepers

Lazar Carević kept 17 clean sheets in 34 appearances this season

Alfonso Pastor kept a clean sheet in his only match

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass

Famalicão's home defense is strong, conceding only 12 goals in 22 home matches

Venue history shows a low-scoring trend with 1.8 goals per match on average

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