Match report →
Estrela Amadora – Sporting Braga2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Estrela Amadora
0.75
Total xG
2.39
Sporting Braga
1.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estrela Amadora | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.66 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Braga enters the match as favorites with a mathematically calculated win probability of 57%
- Estrela Amadora played counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging 4.6 shots on target
- Sporting Braga remained undefeated in all 4 previous head-to-head matches against Estrela Amadora
Risks
- Sporting Braga's offensive efficiency has slowed down recently, averaging 1.7 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
- The absence of injured defender S. Niakate weakens the visitors' defensive stability
- Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 1.65 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Estrela Amadora15%
Draw27%
Sporting Braga57%
Double chance
Estrela Amadora or draw43%
Sporting Braga or draw85%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
0:1
14%
1:1
13%
0:2
12%
0:0
11%
1:2
9%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estrela Amadora: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Estrela Amadora 4-2-3-1 · Sporting Braga 3-4-3
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 5 S. Leković
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 39 E. Doué
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 99 A. Marcus
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 10 I. Stoica
- 37 L. Antonetti
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 10 Pau Victor
Substitutes
- 19 J. Jordán Moreno
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 4 B. Schappo
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 8 R. Oliveira Botelho
- 6 K. Höög-Jansson
- 49 R. Mitongo Muteba
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 93 B. Loussakou Souza
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 19 J. Older Wind
- 37 L. Barišić
- 17 J. Milošević
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →