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Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora - Sporting Braga

09/10/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Estrela Amadora
0.7
Total xG
2.4
Sporting Braga
1.6
Most Likely Scores

0:1

14%

1:1

13%

0:2

12%

0:0

11%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
EASB

Estrela Amadora

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.66
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.23
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap)
-0.09
Full strength squad available

Sporting Braga

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.28
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap)
+0.09
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estrela Amadora: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 2
    Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

15%

Draw

27%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

85%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Braga enters the match as favorites with a mathematically calculated win probability of 57%
  • Estrela Amadora played counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging 4.6 shots on target
  • Sporting Braga remained undefeated in all 4 previous head-to-head matches against Estrela Amadora
Risk Factors
  • Sporting Braga's offensive efficiency has slowed down recently, averaging 1.7 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
  • The absence of injured defender S. Niakate weakens the visitors' defensive stability
  • Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 1.65 goals per game
Overview

Estrela Amadora host Sporting Braga at the Estådio José Gomes

Liga Portugal match on September 10, 2026, 8:15 PM

Estrela Amadora occupy 9th place with 6 points

Sporting Braga travel as the 7th-placed team with 7 points

Form

Estrela Amadora show stable form with the record DDDWD

The home side recently achieved 1 win and 4 draws

Their recent trend is positive with an increased average of 2.2 goals per game

Sporting Braga are undefeated with the record DWDWW

The visitors secured 3 wins and 2 draws

However, the visitors' goal scoring has slowed down to an average of 1.7 goals recently

Statistics

Estrela Amadora scored an average of 1.12 goals and conceded 1.65 goals this season

Sporting Braga feature a strong attack with an average of 1.88 goals

In Estrela's home matches, there is an average of 2.4 goals per game

The BTTS rate at the stadium stands at 60%

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in history

Sporting Braga recorded 1 win, while 3 matches ended in a draw

Estrela Amadora are still waiting for their first win against Braga

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw on May 16, 2026

Key Players

Abraham Marcus leads the home side with 5 goals and 5 assists

Ianis Stoica contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Leandro Antonetti impressed with 4 goals in recent matches

For the visitors, Pau VĂ­ctor shines with 10 goals and 4 assists

Fran Navarro scored 6 goals this season

JoĂŁo Moutinho controls the midfield with an average rating of 6.97

Goalkeepers

LĂ©o Linck guards the goal for Estrela Amadora, keeping 8 clean sheets this season

Bernardo is in goal for Sporting Braga, contributing to 12 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estådio José Gomes

Home advantage is reflected in an average of 2.4 goals per game

The probability of both teams scoring is moderately high at 60%

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