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Liga Portugal

Estoril - Rio Ave

08/22/2026, 05:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Estoril
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Rio Ave
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
ESTRA

Estoril

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.36
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.23
Jordan Holsgrove not in squad (1 goals, 7 assists)
Felix Bacher not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Rio Ave

Attack weakness (0.45x league average)
-0.73
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.17
Dario Spikic not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.50
+0.50
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Estoril with André Lacximicant: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Rio Ave with Andreas Ntoi: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Estoril: 86% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Yanis Begraoui: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

32%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Estoril averaged 4.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Estoril's goal production has stalled recently at 0.8 goals compared to their season average of 1.6
  • The mathematical model predicts a 39% home win probability for Estoril
Risk Factors
  • Rio Ave averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Rio Ave's goal production has stalled recently at 0.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.1
  • Rio Ave lost their last two consecutive league matches
Overview

Estoril hosts Rio Ave

Liga Portugal match on August 22, 2026, 6:00 PM

Bottom-table clash between 14th place (1 point) and 17th place (0 points)

Estoril seeks their first win of the season

Form

Estoril enters with a form of DDLDL

The home side recently suffered a defeat against Nacional

Rio Ave carries a form of DLDLL

The visitors lost their last two consecutive matches against Porto and Gil Vicente

Both teams are still searching for their first victory this season

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Estoril scored an average of 1.59 goals and conceded 1.68 goals per match last season

Rio Ave averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per game

At home, Estoril averaged 1.61 goals scored

Away from home, Rio Ave averaged 1.06 goals scored

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Estoril recorded 2 wins, Rio Ave secured 1 win and 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 1-2 victory for Rio Ave on March 22, 2026

Estoril scored 9 goals in these matches, while Rio Ave scored 5

Key Players

Yanis Begraoui scored 20 goals for Estoril with a rating of 7.04

João Carvalho contributed 6 goals and 12 assists

André Lacximicant scored once in his last 5 matches

For Rio Ave, Jalen Blesa scored 7 goals this season

Tamble Monteiro provided one assist

Diogo Bezerra scored one goal with a rating of 6.85

Not nominated: Jordan Holsgrove, Felix Bacher, Dario Spikic

Goalkeepers

Joel Robles played 31 matches in goal for Estoril with an average seasonal rating of 6.66

Ennio Van Der Gouw completed 10 games for Rio Ave with a rating of 6.87

Estoril kept 5 clean sheets last season, while Rio Ave managed 6

Influences

The match takes place at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota on grass

Matches at this venue recently averaged 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of the last 5 home games

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