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Liga Portugal

Vitória Guimarães - Nacional

08/23/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Vitória Guimarães
1.7
Total xG
2.4
Nacional
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
VGNAC

Vitória Guimarães

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.18
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.12
Oumar Camara on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Beni Mukendi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 87% available)

Nacional

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-1.13
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Jesús Ramírez not in squad (18 goals, 0 assists)
José Gomes not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Paulinho Bóia not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 52% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Vitória Guimarães with João Mendes: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Vitória Guimarães: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Nacional with João Aurélio: 1 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Vitória Guimarães: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Nacional: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical favorites: The model calculates a home win probability of 58% and 1.67 expected goals for Vitória Guimarães
  • Critical squad impact for Nacional: Only 52% of goal threat available without the unlisted Jesús Ramírez (18 goals), José Gomes (1 goal, 5 assists), and Paulinho Bóia (4 goals, 2 assists)
  • Tactical dominance: Vitória Guimarães recently controlled possession with an average of 55%
Risk Factors
  • Home team form crisis: Vitória Guimarães have lost their last 5 matches in a row (LLLLL)
  • Defensive vulnerability: Nacional concede an average of 1.69 goals per away match
  • Limited data availability on historical away performances
Overview

Vitória Guimarães host Nacional at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Liga Portugal match on August 23, 2026, 3:30 PM

The 17th-placed home side with 0 points face 6th-placed Nacional with 4 points

Vitória Guimarães are under pressure after two consecutive losses to start the season

Form

Vitória Guimarães are in a negative spiral with 5 consecutive losses (LLLLL)

The home team's goal production is stagnant at 0.6 goals recently compared to the season average of 1.2

Nacional show a positive form trend with 2 wins and 1 draw recently (LLWDW)

The visitors are currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average of 1.2

Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Vitória Guimarães scored 39 goals (avg. 1.15) and conceded 51 goals (avg. 1.5) over the season

Nacional scored 37 goals (avg. 1.09) and conceded 45 goals (avg. 1.32)

Vitória Guimarães' home record shows a stable defense with only 0.83 goals conceded per game

Nacional concede an average of 1.69 goals per away match

Vitória Guimarães' home matches averaged 2.4 goals with a BTTS rate of 20%

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the two teams

Balanced record with 2 wins for Vitória Guimarães, 1 win for Nacional, and 1 draw

The last encounter on May 16, 2026, ended in a 2-0 win for Nacional

Both teams scored a total of 6 goals each in these duels

Key Players

Midfielder Samu is the most dangerous player for Vitória Guimarães with 7 season goals

Gustavo Silva contributed 5 goals and 2 assists for the home team this season

Defender Ze Vitor is a key pillar for Nacional with 4 goals and an average rating of 7.00

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Oliwier Zych recorded 10 clean sheets this season, with 5 in home matches

Renato Marin in Nacional's goal achieved 8 clean sheets, including 3 away from home

Influences

Vitória Guimarães benefit from home advantage at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques with only 0.83 goals conceded per home game

Nacional show away weakness with an average of 1.69 goals conceded per game on natural grass

Historical venue stats show a low BTTS rate of just 20% (1 out of 5 games)

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