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Liga Portugal

Sporting CP - Alverca

08/22/2026, 07:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Sporting CP
1.8
Total xG
2.7
Alverca
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SCALV

Sporting CP

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.59
Attack strength (1.34x league average)
+0.32
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match)
+0.28
Rising form (3.4 vs 2.5 season average)
+0.28
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 11, 9 places gap)
+0.08
Pedro Gonçalves not in squad (13 goals, 8 assists)
Francisco Trincão not in squad (7 goals, 11 assists)
Gonçalo Inácio on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Hidemasa Morita not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Georgios Vagiannidis on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Eduardo Quaresma on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

Alverca

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.84
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 2, 9 places gap)
-0.09
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Kaiky Marques Naves not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 66% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.56
+0.56
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting CP: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Alverca with Vasco Moreira: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Sporting CP: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Sporting CP: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 5
    Sporting CP: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

25%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Not nominated for Sporting CP: Pedro Gonçalves (13 goals / 8 assists), Francisco Trincão (7 goals / 11 assists), Gonçalo Inácio (2 goals / 3 assists), Hidemasa Morita (1 goal / 4 assists), Georgios Vagiannidis (0 goals / 4 assists), Eduardo Quaresma (2 goals / 2 assists)
  • Form divergence: Sporting CP averaged 3.4 goals recently compared to their season average of 2.5, while Alverca's scoring has stalled at 0.6 goals
  • Home attack vs away defense: Sporting CP averages 2.68 goals at home, whereas Alverca concedes an average of 1.71 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos, Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira, Kaiky Marques Naves missing for Alverca, only 66% of goals available
  • Alverca concedes an average of 1.71 goals per away match
Overview

Sporting CP hosts Alverca

Liga Portugal match on August 22, 2026, 8:30 PM

Sporting CP is currently in 6th place with 4 points

Alverca sits in 13th place with 1 point

Form

Sporting CP shows strong form with WWWDW

4 wins and 1 draw in their recent matches

Alverca struggles with a form of LDLLD

0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their recent matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Sporting CP scores an average of 2.68 goals per home game

They concede only 0.58 goals on average at home

Alverca scores an average of 1.00 goal per away match

The visitors concede 1.71 goals on average away from home

Head-to-Head

There have been 2 head-to-head matches

Sporting CP won both encounters

The goal record stands at 6:1 in favor of Sporting CP

The last match ended in a 4:1 away win for Sporting CP

Key Players

Luis Suárez scored 28 goals and provided 6 assists this season

Maxi Araújo has 5 goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.11

Figueiredo is Alverca's top attacker with 6 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Rui Silva kept 10 clean sheets this season with a rating of 6.94

Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira has 1 clean sheet with a rating of 6.89

Influences

Matches at the Estádio José Alvalade average 4.2 goals per game

Strong home advantage with 2.68 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game

The match is played on natural grass

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