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Liga Portugal

Santa Clara - Famalicão

08/23/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Santa Clara
0.9
Total xG
1.7
Famalicão
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

20%

1:1

15%

1:0

15%

0:1

13%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
SCFAM

Santa Clara

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.08
Gabriel Silva not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists)
Gustavo Klismahn not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 69% available)

Famalicão

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-1.10
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.55
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.03
Gustavo Sá not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Justin de Haas not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Rafa Soares not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Simon Elisor not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 91% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Famalicão: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 2
    Santa Clara with Luis Fernando: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Famalicão with Pedro Santos: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

38%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

52%

Under 1.5

48%

Over 2.5

24%

Under 2.5

76%

Over 3.5

9%

Under 3.5

91%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

62%

Both Score

Yes

34%

No

66%

Key Factors
  • Offensive uptrend: Santa Clara is scoring more frequently recently with an average of 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.14
  • Balanced history: The head-to-head record is tied with 2 wins each and zero draws so far
  • Low goal expectation: The mathematical model predicts only 0.89 expected home goals and 0.80 expected away goals
Risk Factors
  • Gabriel Silva and Gustavo Klismahn are missing, leaving only 69% of the usual starting strength available for Santa Clara
  • Famalicão concedes an average of 1.42 goals per away game
  • Low offensive threat with Santa Clara recently averaging only 3.0 shots on target per game
Overview

Santa Clara (7th place, 4 points) hosts Famalicão (13th place, 1 point) at the Estádio de São Miguel

Liga Portugal match on August 23, 2026, 6:00 PM

Both teams look for consistency at the start of the season

Form

Santa Clara shows solid form with a record of DWLDW

The home side recently secured a 1-0 win against Academico Viseu

Famalicão arrives with a form trend of DDWDL

The visitors lost their last match 1-2 against Marítimo

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Santa Clara scores an average of 0.94 goals per game this season

Their home record also shows exactly 0.94 goals scored and conceded per home game

Famalicão scores an average of 1.25 goals away from home but concedes 1.42 goals

In previous league matches, Santa Clara has seen both teams score in 14 games

Advanced stats show Santa Clara is currently scoring more frequently with 1.4 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.14

Head-to-Head

The historical record between both teams is balanced with 2 wins for each side

In the 4 head-to-head matches so far, there has not been a single draw

The goal difference stands at 4-6 from Santa Clara's perspective

The last encounter ended in a 1-0 victory for Famalicão

Key Players

Vinícius Lopes has already scored 6 goals this season

Gonçalo Paciência shows rising form with 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Diogo Calila stabilizes the defense and recently contributed 1 assist

Mathias de Amorim has scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Gil Dias is a key offensive factor with 4 goals and 7 assists

Sorriso has performed well this season with 5 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Lucas França is in goal for Santa Clara, keeping 10 clean sheets overall this season

Lazar Carević has recorded 17 clean sheets so far this season

Both goalkeepers have provided a solid foundation for their respective defenses

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estádio de São Miguel

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches at this venue

Santa Clara benefits from a balanced home record of 17 goals scored and 17 conceded

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