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Liga Portugal

Porto - Arouca

08/23/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Porto
1.7
Total xG
2.4
Arouca
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PORARO

Porto

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.88
Attack strength (1.23x league average)
+0.17
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Deniz Gül on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Alan Varela on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Arouca

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-1.05
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.33
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.33
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.05
Bas Kuipers not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.46
+0.46
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arouca: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Porto with Pepê: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Porto: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Porto: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 5
    Arouca: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

27%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: Porto won all of the last 4 head-to-head matches with an aggregate score of 13-1
  • Scoring surge: Arouca currently scores 2.6 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 1.5
  • Tactical control: Porto averaged 57% possession and 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Sluggish offense: Porto's scoring has slowed down to 1.4 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.9
  • Away defensive struggles: Arouca conceded 2.43 goals per away match on average last season
Overview

Porto hosts Arouca at the Estádio Do Dragão

Liga Portugal match on August 23, 2026, 8:30 PM

Both teams started the season perfectly with two wins

Porto is in 4th place, while Arouca sits just ahead in 3rd place

An early top-tier clash for the league lead

Form

Porto's form is WLWWW (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss)

Porto won their last match 2-0 away against Rio Ave

Arouca's form is DWWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses)

Arouca comes off a convincing 4-0 home victory against Moreirense

Both teams are in excellent shape

Statistics

Porto averaged 1.94 goals scored per game last season

Their defense was highly stable, conceding just 0.53 goals per game

Arouca conceded an average of 1.88 goals per game last season

In away matches, Arouca conceded 2.43 goals per game on average

At the Estádio Do Dragão, recent matches averaged 1.6 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Porto historically dominates this matchup

Porto won all of the last 4 direct encounters

The overall goal difference in these matches stands at 13-1 in favor of Porto

The last encounter ended in a 3-1 win for Porto on February 27, 2026

Key Players

William Gomes scored 8 goals last season

Gabri Veiga recorded 3 goals and 8 assists last season

Jan Bednarek anchors the defense with an average rating of 7.22

Iván Barbero scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches for Arouca

Taichi Fukui is in rising form with 2 goals and a 7.53 average rating

Goalkeepers

Diogo Costa made 33 appearances last season and shows a rising form trend

Ignacio de Arruabarrena played 16 matches in goal for Arouca last season

Porto kept 21 clean sheets during the previous campaign

Arouca recorded 7 clean sheets last season

Influences

Porto relies on home defensive strength, having conceded only 0.35 goals per home game last season

Matches at the Estádio Do Dragão tend to be low-scoring with a 1.6 average total goals

The match will be played on natural grass

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