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Liga Portugal

Moreirense - Benfica

09/09/2026, 07:45 PM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Moreirense
0.7
Total xG
2.4
Benfica
1.6
Most Likely Scores

0:1

14%

1:1

13%

0:2

13%

0:0

11%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
MORBEN

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.79
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10

Benfica

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.41
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.41
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.40
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.40
Georgiy Sudakov on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Alexander Bah not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)

  • 4
    Benfica: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Moreirense: 73% of all goals in the first half (8 of 11, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

15%

Draw

27%

Away Win

57%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

43%

Away or Draw

85%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Form discrepancy: Benfica enters with a 5-match winning streak (WWWWW), while Moreirense won only 1 of their last 5 matches (DDLWL)
  • Tactical dominance: Benfica averaged 8.6 shots on target with 63.8% possession in recent matches, compared to Moreirense's average of only 3.0 shots on target
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a strong 58% probability for an away win, expecting 1.63 goals for Benfica
Risk Factors
  • Shorter recovery time: Benfica enters the match with only 4 days of rest since their last game
  • Low offensive threat: Moreirense averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Moreirense host Benfica at the Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Liga Portugal match on September 9, 2026, 8:45 PM

Moreirense currently sit in 13th place with 4 points

Benfica are in 4th place with 10 points and enter as favorites

Form

Moreirense has the form DDLWL

The home side recently recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Benfica is in outstanding shape with the form WWWWW

The visitors won all of their last 5 matches and show a positive trend

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Moreirense averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game this season

In home matches, they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded

Benfica shines with an average of 2.18 goals scored and only 0.74 goals conceded per match

The visitors have a strong away record with 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded on average

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the two teams

Benfica dominated the record with 3 wins and 1 draw

Moreirense failed to win any of these matches

The last encounter ended in a 4-1 victory for Benfica

Key Players

Dinis Lourenço Casals Namura Borges Pinto is a key defender for Moreirense with 1 goal and 6 assists

Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga has already scored 4 goals with a rating of 6.82

Nile John has impressed with 1 goal in his last 5 matches and rising form

Vangelis Pavlidis leads Benfica with an outstanding 23 goals and 4 assists

Gianluca Prestianni recently shone with 4 goals in his last 5 appearances

Leandro Barreiro contributed 3 goals and 5 assists this season

Not selected for Benfica: Georgiy Sudakov (4 goals, 2 assists) and Alexander Bah (2 goals, 0 assists)

Goalkeepers

André Ferreira played 22 matches in goal for Moreirense this season, averaging a 6.83 rating

His team recorded 9 clean sheets during this campaign

Samuel Soares made 2 appearances for Benfica this season with a strong 7.54 rating

Benfica kept 14 clean sheets in total this season

Influences

The match takes place at the Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas on grass

The historical average at this venue stands at 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the historical matches played here

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