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Moreirense – Benfica0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Moreirense
0.73
Total xG
2.36
Benfica
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Moreirense | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.79 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.41 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.41 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.40 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.40 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Georgiy Sudakov on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexander Bah not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: Benfica enters with a 5-match winning streak (WWWWW), while Moreirense won only 1 of their last 5 matches (DDLWL)
- Tactical dominance: Benfica averaged 8.6 shots on target with 63.8% possession in recent matches, compared to Moreirense's average of only 3.0 shots on target
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a strong 58% probability for an away win, expecting 1.63 goals for Benfica
Risks
- Shorter recovery time: Benfica enters the match with only 4 days of rest since their last game
- Low offensive threat: Moreirense averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Moreirense15%
Draw27%
Benfica57%
Double chance
Moreirense or draw43%
Benfica or draw85%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
0:1
14%
1:1
13%
0:2
13%
0:0
11%
1:2
9%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- Benfica: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Moreirense: 73% of all goals in the first half (8 of 11, last 12 games)
Lineups
Moreirense 4-2-3-1 · Benfica 4-2-3-1
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 23 N. John
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 9 A. Duville-Parsemain
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 58 D. Fonseca da Silva Banjaqui
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Substitutes
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 25 A. Cunha Almeida
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 19 T. Pinto Andrade
- 32 J. da Silva Marques
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 79 L. Vonić
- 28 S. Chipyoka
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 30 C. Echeverri
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 1 A. Trubin
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 16 M. Silva
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 34 S. Elkarouani
- 3 A. Circati
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
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