Liga Portugal
Moreirense - Benfica
09/09/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
0.7
2.4
1.6
0:1
14%1:1
13%0:2
13%0:0
11%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Moreirense
Benfica
The Lab
- 1Benfica: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 2Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- 3Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
- 4Benfica: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- 5Moreirense: 73% of all goals in the first half (8 of 11, last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
15%
Draw
27%
Away Win
57%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
43%
Away or Draw
85%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Form discrepancy: Benfica enters with a 5-match winning streak (WWWWW), while Moreirense won only 1 of their last 5 matches (DDLWL)
- Tactical dominance: Benfica averaged 8.6 shots on target with 63.8% possession in recent matches, compared to Moreirense's average of only 3.0 shots on target
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a strong 58% probability for an away win, expecting 1.63 goals for Benfica
Risk Factors
- Shorter recovery time: Benfica enters the match with only 4 days of rest since their last game
- Low offensive threat: Moreirense averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview
Moreirense host Benfica at the Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Liga Portugal match on September 9, 2026, 8:45 PM
Moreirense currently sit in 13th place with 4 points
Benfica are in 4th place with 10 points and enter as favorites
Form
Moreirense has the form DDLWL
The home side recently recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Benfica is in outstanding shape with the form WWWWW
The visitors won all of their last 5 matches and show a positive trend
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Moreirense averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game this season
In home matches, they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded
Benfica shines with an average of 2.18 goals scored and only 0.74 goals conceded per match
The visitors have a strong away record with 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded on average
Head-to-Head
There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the two teams
Benfica dominated the record with 3 wins and 1 draw
Moreirense failed to win any of these matches
The last encounter ended in a 4-1 victory for Benfica
Key Players
Dinis Lourenço Casals Namura Borges Pinto is a key defender for Moreirense with 1 goal and 6 assists
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga has already scored 4 goals with a rating of 6.82
Nile John has impressed with 1 goal in his last 5 matches and rising form
Vangelis Pavlidis leads Benfica with an outstanding 23 goals and 4 assists
Gianluca Prestianni recently shone with 4 goals in his last 5 appearances
Leandro Barreiro contributed 3 goals and 5 assists this season
Not selected for Benfica: Georgiy Sudakov (4 goals, 2 assists) and Alexander Bah (2 goals, 0 assists)
Goalkeepers
André Ferreira played 22 matches in goal for Moreirense this season, averaging a 6.83 rating
His team recorded 9 clean sheets during this campaign
Samuel Soares made 2 appearances for Benfica this season with a strong 7.54 rating
Benfica kept 14 clean sheets in total this season
Influences
The match takes place at the Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas on grass
The historical average at this venue stands at 2.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 40% of the historical matches played here