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Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente - Casa Pia

08/24/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Gil Vicente
1.6
Total xG
2.2
Casa Pia
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

2:0

14%

1:1

12%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
GVCP

Gil Vicente

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Murilo de Souza Costa on the bench (11 goals, 4 assists)
Luís André Leite Esteves not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 44% available)

Casa Pia

Attack weakness (0.61x league average)
-0.90
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.68
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.4 vs 1 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap)
-0.07
Gaizka Larrazabal not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
JoĂŁo Marques not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
76% of goal output missing (only 27% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Casa Pia with JoĂŁo Marques: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Gil Vicente with ZĂ© Carlos: 0.7 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Casa Pia: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Casa Pia: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

28%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Severe quality loss for Casa Pia: Only 27% of their goal threat is available with Gaizka Larrazabal and JoĂŁo Marques missing
  • Defense weakness of the visitors: Casa Pia conceded an average of 2.21 goals per away match last season
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a home win for Gil Vicente with a 59% probability
Risk Factors
  • Limited offensive power for Gil Vicente: Only 44% of their goal threat is available with Murilo de Souza Costa and LuĂ­s AndrĂ© Leite Esteves missing
  • Low offensive efficiency: Gil Vicente averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Gil Vicente host Casa Pia at the EstĂĄdio Cidade de Barcelos

Liga Portugal match on August 24, 2026, 8:15 PM

Gil Vicente sit 8th with 3 points after their opening win

Casa Pia are bottom of the table in 18th place with 0 points and 0:8 goals

Form

Gil Vicente show a form of WDLLW

Their last match was a 1-0 win against Rio Ave

Form summary includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Casa Pia show a form of LWDLL

Their last match was a 0-7 loss against Benfica

Form summary includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Statistics

Gil Vicente scored 47 goals in 34 matches last season, averaging 1.38 goals per game

In home games last season, they conceded an average of only 0.85 goals

Casa Pia averaged only 0.91 goals scored per match over the season

In away games last season, the visitors conceded an average of 2.21 goals

Gil Vicente's current goal production is stalling at an average of 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far

Both Gil Vicente and Casa Pia have won 1 match each

Additionally, there were 2 draws

The goal difference in these matches is balanced at 4:4

The last direct encounter ended in a 2-1 win for Gil Vicente

Key Players

Santiago GarcĂ­a GonzĂĄlez scored 6 goals and provided 3 assists in 33 matches with an average rating of 7.06

HĂ©ctor HernĂĄndez has 2 goals in 9 season appearances with a rating of 6.77

Joelson Fernandes contributed 1 goal and 3 assists in 24 matches

David Sousa stabilizes the visitors' defense and also scored 2 goals in 26 appearances

Abdu Conté recorded 2 assists in 22 matches with a rating of 6.72

Seba PĂ©rez appeared in 27 matches with an average rating of 6.67

Goalkeepers

LucĂŁo guards the home team's goal and contributed to 12 clean sheets last season

For the visitors, André Nogueira Gomes starts in goal, with Casa Pia achieving a total of 7 clean sheets last season

Influences

Gil Vicente benefit from home advantage at the EstĂĄdio Cidade de Barcelos on natural grass

The historical home stats show an average of 2.4 goals per match in Barcelos

Casa Pia managed only 13 goals in 14 away matches last season

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