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Liga Portugal

Benfica - Estoril

08/31/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Benfica
2.6
Total xG
3.2
Estoril
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

14%

3:0

12%

2:1

8%

4:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
BENEST

Benfica

Attack strength (2.29x league average)
+1.68
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.41
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.29
Rising form (3.2 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.29
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.09

Estoril

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-1.09
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.28
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.05
Rafik Guitane on the bench (3 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Estoril: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 5
    Benfica: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

79%

Draw

15%

Away Win

6%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

94%

Away or Draw

21%

No Draw

85%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Significant form gap with Benfica winning 3 consecutive matches while Estoril is winless in recent games
  • Benfica is currently scoring more frequently averaging 3.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.2
  • Benfica averaged 9.0 shots on target and 63.2% possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Benfica had only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to Estoril's 9 days
  • Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away match
Overview

Benfica hosts Estoril at the EstƔdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Liga Portugal match on August 31, 2026, 8:15 PM

Benfica occupies 8th place with 4 points from 2 matches

Estoril is in 17th place with 1 point from 3 matches

Clear match-up between favorites and underdogs

Form

Benfica's form across all competitions is DDWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home side recently recorded 3 wins and 2 draws

Estoril's recent form is DLDLL

The visitors registered 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their recent matches

Statistics

Benfica scores an average of 2.18 goals and concedes 0.74 goals per match

At home, Benfica averaged 2.16 goals scored and 0.68 goals conceded

Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away match

Estoril scored an average of 1.59 goals and conceded 1.68 goals this season

Head-to-Head

Historical dominance for Benfica with 4 wins from 4 head-to-head matches

The goal difference in these matches is 11:3 in favor of the home team

The last head-to-head match ended in a 3-1 win for Benfica on May 16, 2026

Key Players

Vangelis Pavlidis has 23 goals this season and scored 5 goals in his last 4 matches

Gianluca Prestianni contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Yanis Begraoui has scored 20 goals this season for Estoril

Not in the lineup for the away team: Rafik Guitane with 3 goals and 5 assists

Goalkeepers

Samuel Soares kept the net empty during his 2 appearances this season

Benfica recorded 14 clean sheets in total this season

Joel Robles played 31 matches this season for Estoril

Estoril completed 5 clean sheets in total

Influences

Home advantage is supported by Benfica's 41 home goals scored this season

The EstƔdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica features a grass surface

The stadium saw an average of 4.8 goals per game in recent matches

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