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Benfica – Estoril2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Benfica
2.62
Total xG
3.23
Estoril
0.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Benfica | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.29x league average) | +1.68 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −1.09 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.29 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.29 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Rafik Guitane on the bench (3 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Significant form gap with Benfica winning 3 consecutive matches while Estoril is winless in recent games
- Benfica is currently scoring more frequently averaging 3.2 goals compared to their season average of 2.2
- Benfica averaged 9.0 shots on target and 63.2% possession in recent matches
Risks
- Benfica had only 4 days of rest since their last match compared to Estoril's 9 days
- Estoril concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Benfica79%
Draw15%
Estoril6%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Double chance
Benfica or draw94%
Estoril or draw21%
No draw85%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
2:0
14%
3:0
12%
2:1
8%
4:0
8%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Estoril: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Benfica: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Benfica 4-2-3-1 · Estoril 3-4-3
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Estoril
- 1 J. Robles Blázquez
- 25 S. Andreou
- 4 F. Reis Ferreira
- 15 I. Sierra Arnal
- 2 R. Sánchez Sendra
- 8 M. da Silva Rocha
- 5 A. Tsoungui
- 3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
- 7 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
- 14 Y. Begraoui
- 12 J. Antunes Carvalho
Substitutes
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 1 A. Trubin
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 20 R. Rios
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 16 M. Silva
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 3 A. Circati
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 77 G. Carvalho Moreira
- 10 J. Holsgrove
- 98 F. Garcia Andrade
- 22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
- 23 D. Aranha Dias
- 17 A. Ramos das Neves
- 90 T. Brito
- 99 R. Guitane
- 16 M. Turk
- 19 T. Parente
- 80 L. Viegas Abreu Campos Gomes
- 42 J. Arnolin
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