Match report →
Arouca – Marítimo2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Arouca
1.03
Total xG
2.08
Marítimo
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Arouca | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.40 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Hyun-ju Lee not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Extremely balanced prediction: The model calculates almost identical probabilities for all three outcomes (33% home win, 34% draw, 34% away win)
- Improved home attack: Arouca is scoring more frequently in recent games with an average of 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.38
- Counter-attacking style: Marítimo averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches despite holding just 42% possession
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Arouca concedes a season average of 1.88 goals per match
- Key player missing: Hyun-ju Lee (7 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated for this match
All probabilities
Result
Arouca33%
Draw34%
Marítimo34%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Double chance
Arouca or draw66%
Marítimo or draw67%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
11%
1:0
11%
1:2
7%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arouca: 3.2 cards per game (35 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Arouca 4-2-3-1 · Marítimo 4-2-3-1
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 6 E. van Ee
- 8 T. Fukui
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Marítimo
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 4 R. Gomes Fernandes
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 18 V. Danilović
- 35 B. Limbombe
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
Substitutes
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 5 B. Popović
- 14 H. Lee
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 89 P. Carvalho Santos
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
- 77 S. Park
- 71 M. da Silva Duarte
- 21 I. Alani
- 30 F. Barbosa Vieites
- 22 G. Szalai
- 5 N. Lopes
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 27 S. Bamba
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
- 68 N. Batista
- 16 F. Silva
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