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Liga Portugal

Arouca - Marítimo

08/29/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Arouca
1.0
Total xG
2.1
Marítimo
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

11%

1:0

11%

1:2

7%
What influences the xG?
AROMAR

Arouca

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.23
Hyun-ju Lee not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists)

Marítimo

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.40
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.26

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arouca: 3.2 cards per game (35 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

34%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Extremely balanced prediction: The model calculates almost identical probabilities for all three outcomes (33% home win, 34% draw, 34% away win)
  • Improved home attack: Arouca is scoring more frequently in recent games with an average of 2.2 goals compared to their season average of 1.38
  • Counter-attacking style: Marítimo averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches despite holding just 42% possession
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability: Arouca concedes a season average of 1.88 goals per match
  • Key player missing: Hyun-ju Lee (7 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated for this match
Overview

Arouca hosts Marítimo at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Liga Portugal match on August 29, 2026, 3:30 PM

Clash between the 5th and 3rd placed teams in the table

Arouca currently has 6 points

Marítimo has accumulated 7 points

Form

Arouca's form in recent matches: WWWWL

Arouca suffered a loss against Porto in their last match

Marítimo's form in recent matches: WWD

Marítimo recorded a draw against Academico Viseu in their last game

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Arouca scores an average of 1.38 goals per league match

Defensively, the hosts concede an average of 1.88 goals

Marítimo averages 1.67 goals per game this season

The visitors concede an average of 1.00 goals

Influences

Matches at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca average 3.6 goals

Both teams scored in 60% of these home matches

A high proportion of 80% of home games ended with over 2.5 goals

The pitch surface at the stadium is grass

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