Match report â
Academico Viseu â Porto0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Academico Viseu
1.08
Total xG
3.51
Porto
2.43
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Academico Viseu | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +1.46 | |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | â0.87 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | â0.82 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | â0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | â0.08 | |
| Deniz GĂŒl on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alan Varela on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical dominance with a calculated away win probability of 66%
- Clear class gap between second-placed Porto and 12th-placed Academico Viseu
- Offensive dominance by Porto averaging 6.0 shots on target recently
Risks
- Porto's goal production is slightly lagging in recent matches with 1.6 goals compared to their 1.9 season average
- Limited dataset regarding player statistics for Academico Viseu
- Lack of head-to-head history in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Academico Viseu14%
Draw20%
Porto66%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Double chance
Academico Viseu or draw34%
Porto or draw86%
No draw80%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:2
10%
1:3
8%
0:3
7%
2:2
5%
1:4
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Academico Viseu 4-3-3 · Porto 4-3-3
Academico Viseu
- 98 E. Ferreira da Silva
- 75 R. Ribeiro Vieira
- 41 A. Correia
- 2 N. Michelis
- 57 G. Abreu Costa
- 8 C. Kahraman
- 7 L. da Costa Silva
- 14 S. Messeguem
- 31 J. de Sousa Crispim
- 33 A. Silva Filho
- 47 L. Gohi
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 12 Z. Sanusi
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
Substitutes
- 9 M. Bouldini
- 12 J. Soriano Oropesa
- 45 A. GarcĂa Mestanza
- 6 A. Castanheira Ceitil
- 10 A. Zamora
- 18 C. Ferreira
- 29 A. BabiÄ
- 5 P. Barcelos Silva
- 44 R. Gomes Pereira
- 1 M. LavĂn RodrĂguez
- 21 T. Caldas JanuĂĄrio Carvalho Domingos
- 22 N. Mortimer Moreno
- 16 I. Hwang
- 21 D. PrpiÄ
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 22 A. Varela
- 24 J. Santos da Costa
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 27 D. GĂŒl
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 74 F. Moura
- 18 N. PĂ©rez
- 58 T. Silva
- 57 D. Cunha
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