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Sporting Braga – Vitória Guimarães1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sporting Braga
1.62
Total xG
2.34
Vitória Guimarães
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting Braga | Vitória Guimarães |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −1.00 | |
| Attack strength (1.48x league average) | +0.41 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Ricardo Horta not in squad (14 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Fran Navarro on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Oumar Camara on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Beni Mukendi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical model predicts a 58% probability for a home win
- Sporting Braga's home average of 1.89 goals meets Vitória's fragile away defense conceding 2.91 goals on average
- Sporting Braga recently averaged 4.2 shots on target with 56% possession
Risks
- Ricardo Horta and Fran Navarro are missing or not nominated
- Sporting Braga's goal production has slowed down recently to 1.7 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
- Vitória Guimarães also shows stalled goal production with recently 0.6 goals compared to their average of 1.2
All probabilities
Result
Sporting Braga58%
Draw27%
Vitória Guimarães15%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Sporting Braga or draw85%
Vitória Guimarães or draw42%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
13%
2:0
13%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Pau Víctor: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Vitória Guimarães: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 14)
Lineups
Sporting Braga 3-4-2-1 · Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 11 G. Silva Vieira
- 10 Pau Victor
Vitória Guimarães
- 48 O. Zych
- 23 T. Strata
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
- 13 João Mendes
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 44 L. Doucet
- 11 G. da Silva Cunha
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 24 A. Ndoye
Substitutes
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 37 L. Barišić
- 17 J. Milošević
- 53 J. Zamith Oliveira Noro
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
- 90 L. Teixeira Pinto
- 87 J. Costa Trovisco
- 19 V. Andersson
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 6 M. Mitrovic
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 18 T. Gomes Arcanjo
- 7 O. Camara
- 22 J. Castillo Reyes
- 82 F. Lagos Dias
- 29 V. Ouotro
- 56 S. Verdi Oliveira Silva
- 15 Y. Mosquera Mosquera
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