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Liga Portugal

Sporting Braga - Vitória Guimarães

08/31/2026, 07:15 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Sporting Braga
1.6
Total xG
2.3
Vitória Guimarães
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SBVG

Sporting Braga

Attack strength (1.48x league average)
+0.41
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.29
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Ricardo Horta not in squad (14 goals, 4 assists)
Fran Navarro on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
30% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Vitória Guimarães

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-1.00
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.18
Oumar Camara on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Beni Mukendi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 2
    Pau Víctor: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Vitória Guimarães: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 14)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a 58% probability for a home win
  • Sporting Braga's home average of 1.89 goals meets Vitória's fragile away defense conceding 2.91 goals on average
  • Sporting Braga recently averaged 4.2 shots on target with 56% possession
Risk Factors
  • Ricardo Horta and Fran Navarro are missing or not nominated
  • Sporting Braga's goal production has slowed down recently to 1.7 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
  • Vitória Guimarães also shows stalled goal production with recently 0.6 goals compared to their average of 1.2
Overview

Sporting Braga (16th place, 1 point) host Vitória Guimarães (11th place, 3 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Braga

Liga Portugal match on August 31, 2026, 8:15 PM

An important mid-table clash early in the season

Form

Sporting Braga shows stable form with a WDDWD record

Vitória Guimarães won their last match but has an overall record of LLLLW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting Braga scores an average of 1.88 goals per season

Vitória Guimarães concedes an average of 2.91 goals in away matches

Braga has kept 12 clean sheets this season

Head-to-Head

Even record with 4 head-to-head matches

Each team won 1 match alongside 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 3-2 win for Sporting Braga

Key Players

Pau Víctor (10 goals, 4 assists), João Moutinho (1 assist, 6.97 rating), and Demir Ege Tıknaz (1 assist, 7.35 rating) lead Sporting Braga

Samu (7 goals, 3 assists), Gustavo Silva (5 goals, 2 assists), and Tony Strata (1 assist, 7.02 rating) are key for Vitória Guimarães

Goalkeepers

Bernardo plays in goal for Sporting Braga

Oliwier Zych is the goalkeeper for Vitória Guimarães

Braga recorded 12 clean sheets this season, while the visitors kept 10 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estádio Municipal de Braga

Sporting Braga has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.89 goals per game

The visitors' historical away weakness with 2.91 goals conceded per game could strengthen the home advantage

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