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Liga Portugal

Casa Pia - Moreirense

08/30/2026, 05:00 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Casa Pia
1.1
Total xG
1.8
Moreirense
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

10%

2:0

10%
What influences the xG?
CPMOR

Casa Pia

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.64
Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.24
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.4 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap)
-0.11
Abdu Conté on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
58% of goal output missing (only 23% available)

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.36x league average)
-1.02
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap)
+0.03
Travassos not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
Rodrigo Alonso Martín on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 70% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    Casa Pia: 2.8 cards per game (28 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)

  • 3
    Moreirense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

35%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

36%

No

64%

Key Factors
  • Limited goal threat for Casa Pia: Only 24% of regular starting eleven goal contribution available, with Abdu Conté missing
  • Moreirense averaged a possession-dominant style in recent matches, with 55% average possession
  • Low scoring expectation: The mathematical model calculates the probability of over 2.5 goals at only 27%
Risk Factors
  • Casa Pia averaged only 3.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Moreirense registered an average of just 3.0 shots on target in recent games
Overview

Casa Pia host Moreirense at the Estádio Pina Manique

Liga Portugal match on August 30, 2026, 6:00 PM

Bottom-of-the-table clash between 18th-placed Casa Pia (0 points) and 17th-placed Moreirense (1 point)

Both teams have had a tough start to the season and desperately need points

Form

Form Casa Pia: WDLLL - Form Moreirense: WLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Casa Pia has suffered 3 consecutive defeats

Moreirense recorded one draw and one defeat recently

The home team is yet to record a win this season

Statistics

Casa Pia scored 31 goals in 34 season matches (avg 0.91) and conceded 57 goals (avg 1.68)

Moreirense scored 37 goals in 34 matches (avg 1.09) and conceded 49 goals (avg 1.44)

Casa Pia recorded 7 clean sheets last season, while Moreirense registered 9

The hosts' goalscoring has stalled recently, averaging just 0.4 goals per game

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Moreirense leads with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Casa Pia

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on March 1, 2026

Both teams have scored a total of 7 goals each in these matchups

Key Players

David Sousa stabilizes the home defense with an average rating of 6.79

João Goulart has made 25 appearances for Casa Pia with a 6.62 rating

André Geraldes has featured in 26 matches in the hosts' backline

Dinis Lourenço Casals Namura Borges Pinto shines for the visitors with 1 goal and 6 assists

Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga has scored 4 goals with a season average rating of 6.82

Nile John shows rising form with a rating of 6.92 in recent matches

Not nominated for the visitors: Travassos, Rodrigo Alonso Martín, and Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso

Goalkeepers

André Nogueira Gomes starts in goal for Casa Pia

André Ferreira guards the Moreirense goal with an average rating of 6.83

Ferreira made 22 appearances this season and even contributed one assist

The hosts kept 7 clean sheets this season, while the visitors recorded 9

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estádio Pina Manique

Historically, an average of 2.2 goals are scored per game at this venue

Recent matches at this stadium show a very low both-teams-to-score rate of 20%

Moreirense benefits from a longer recovery period of 14 days, compared to Casa Pia's 6 days of rest

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