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Casa Pia – Moreirense0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Casa Pia
1.08
Total xG
1.80
Moreirense
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Casa Pia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.36x league average) | −1.02 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.64 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.24 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Abdu Conté on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 23% available) | ||
| Travassos not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Alonso Martín on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 48% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Limited goal threat for Casa Pia: Only 24% of regular starting eleven goal contribution available, with Abdu Conté missing
- Moreirense averaged a possession-dominant style in recent matches, with 55% average possession
- Low scoring expectation: The mathematical model calculates the probability of over 2.5 goals at only 27%
Risks
- Casa Pia averaged only 3.2 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Moreirense registered an average of just 3.0 shots on target in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Casa Pia42%
Draw35%
Moreirense23%
Goals
Over 1.555%
Under 1.545%
Over 2.527%
Under 2.573%
Over 3.511%
Under 3.589%
Double chance
Casa Pia or draw77%
Moreirense or draw58%
No draw65%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
0:0
18%
1:0
16%
1:1
15%
0:1
10%
2:0
10%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Casa Pia: 2.8 cards per game (28 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Moreirense: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Casa Pia 4-2-3-1 · Moreirense 4-2-3-1
Casa Pia
- 31 A. Nogueira Gomes
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 43 David Sousa
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 80 L. Ofori
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 70 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 10 D. Costa Rocha
- 20 A. Jatta
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 23 N. John
- 65 G. Liberato Tomas Aquino
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 20 J. Fins Veloso
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 9 A. Duville-Parsemain
Substitutes
- 77 B. Pauwels
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 90 C. Dias Moreira
- 5 A. Conté
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 99 C. Mendes Vicente
- 95 I. Mandić
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 59 A. Dafe
- 21 A. Zouin
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 19 T. Pinto Andrade
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 89 A. Fernandes Lopes Vieira
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