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Liga Portugal

Rio Ave - Sporting CP

08/28/2026, 07:15 PM

0 : 4
Expected Goals
Rio Ave
0.9
Total xG
2.7
Sporting CP
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

0:2

11%

1:2

10%

0:3

7%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
RASC

Rio Ave

Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.09

Sporting CP

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.61
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.37
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (3 vs 2.5 season average)
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.09
Georgios Vagiannidis on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Eduardo Quaresma on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting CP: 6 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Sporting CP: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Rio Ave: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 13)

  • 4
    Rio Ave: 2.7 cards per game (27 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

16%

Draw

25%

Away Win

59%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

41%

Away or Draw

84%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Sporting CP's clinical offense (season average of 2.62 goals scored) meets Rio Ave's vulnerable defense conceding 1.68 goals per game
  • Possession dominance: Sporting CP controlled recent matches with 62% average possession and averaged 3.0 goals per game recently
  • Clear model prediction: The mathematical forecast estimates a 59% win probability for the away side and expects 1.85 goals for Sporting
Risk Factors
  • Home defensive vulnerability: Rio Ave concedes an average of 1.71 goals in home matches
  • Offensive stagnation: Rio Ave's goal scoring stalled recently, averaging only 0.8 goals per match
  • Missing key player: Sporting CP will be without the prolific P. Pereira Gonçalves due to injury
Overview

Rio Ave host Sporting CP at the Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Liga Portugal match on August 28, 2026, 8:15 PM

Second-placed Sporting CP travel as clear favorites to tenth-placed Rio Ave

Sporting CP have 7 points on their account, while Rio Ave stand at 3 points after 3 games

Form

Sporting CP are in strong shape with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches

Rio Ave show unstable form with only 1 win and 3 defeats

Recently Rio Ave celebrated a 2-0 win against Estoril, while Sporting CP defeated Alverca 3-1

Home team form code: LDLLW

Away team form code: WWDWW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting CP present an outstanding offense averaging 2.62 goals scored per game this season

Rio Ave score only 1.03 goals on average and concede 1.68 goals defensively per match

In home games Rio Ave concede 1.71 goals on average

Sporting CP conceded only 0.87 goals on average in away matches

Head-to-Head

Sporting CP dominated the last 4 head-to-head matches with 4 wins

The goal ratio in these games is a clear 14-2 for the visitors

The last meeting ended with a clear 4-1 away victory for Sporting CP

Key Players

Jalen Blesa is Rio Ave's most dangerous attacker with 7 goals this season and a 7.04 rating

Diogo Bezerra contributed 1 goal and 2 assists this season

Tamble Monteiro shows rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 matches

Luis Suárez is Sporting's top threat with outstanding 28 goals and 6 assists this season

Maxi Araújo convinces with 5 goals, 4 assists and a strong season average of 7.11

Flávio Gonçalves scored 1 goal in his 3 appearances this season

Goalkeepers

Ennio Van Der Gouw played 10 games for Rio Ave, achieving an average rating of 6.87

Rui Silva completed 32 matches for Sporting CP with a season average rating of 6.94 and contributed to 5 away clean sheets

Influences

The game will be played on grass at the Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.8 total goals per game with an Over 2.5 rate of 60%

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