Match report →
Rio Ave – Sporting CP0 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Rio Ave
0.88
Total xG
2.73
Sporting CP
1.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rio Ave | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.61 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Georgios Vagiannidis on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Eduardo Quaresma on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Sporting CP's clinical offense (season average of 2.62 goals scored) meets Rio Ave's vulnerable defense conceding 1.68 goals per game
- Possession dominance: Sporting CP controlled recent matches with 62% average possession and averaged 3.0 goals per game recently
- Clear model prediction: The mathematical forecast estimates a 59% win probability for the away side and expects 1.85 goals for Sporting
Risks
- Home defensive vulnerability: Rio Ave concedes an average of 1.71 goals in home matches
- Offensive stagnation: Rio Ave's goal scoring stalled recently, averaging only 0.8 goals per match
- Missing key player: Sporting CP will be without the prolific P. Pereira Gonçalves due to injury
All probabilities
Result
Rio Ave16%
Draw25%
Sporting CP59%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Rio Ave or draw41%
Sporting CP or draw84%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
0:2
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
6%
0:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: 6 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Sporting CP: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Rio Ave: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 13)
- Rio Ave: 2.7 cards per game (27 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1 · Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
Rio Ave
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 54 G. Liavas
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
- 77 D. Špikić
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
Sporting CP
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 6 Z. Debast
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 17 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
Substitutes
- 22 K. Chamorro Rodríguez
- 14 J. Brabec
- 24 P. Gaspar Amaral
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 27 T. Medina
- 25 R. Genuino Lobato
- 30 R. Galčík
- 60 C. Valença
- 67 S. Alves
- 70 A. Wenck
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 19 N. Irankunda
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 4 S. Andersen
- 41 D. Calai Silva
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 55 I. Ba
- 50 R. Amores Dias
- 28 J. Derry
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