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Liga Portugal

Famalicão - Gil Vicente

08/30/2026, 07:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Famalicão
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Gil Vicente
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
FAMGV

Famalicão

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.41
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.39
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.17
18% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Gil Vicente

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Murilo de Souza Costa on the bench (11 goals, 4 assists)
Luís André Leite Esteves not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists)
Santiago García González not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
75% of goal output missing (only 30% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

34%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Squad crisis for the visitors: Only 31% of goal threat is available as Murilo de Souza Costa, Luís André Leite Esteves and Santiago García González are missing
  • Strong home defense for Famalicão: Averaged only 0.55 goals conceded per home game this season
  • Famalicão averaged 3.0 shots on target in recent matches with 59% possession
Risk Factors
  • Struggling goal production for Famalicão, averaging 0.8 goals recently compared to a season average of 1.3
  • Gil Vicente with only 6 days of rest since their last match
  • Statistical analysis predicts a low-scoring game with only a 33% probability for over 2.5 goals
Overview

Famalicão host Gil Vicente at the Estádio Municipal de Famalicão

Liga Portugal match on August 30, 2026, 8:30 PM

Famalicão currently occupy 15th place with one point

Gil Vicente arrive in 6th place with six points

Form

Famalicão show a form of DWDLL

The hosts lost their last two matches

Gil Vicente show a form of DLLWW

The visitors enter the match with two consecutive wins

Statistics

Famalicão scored an average of 1.24 goals and conceded 0.85 goals per game this season

At home, the hosts' defense is stable, conceding only 0.55 goals per match

Gil Vicente averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game

In away games, the visitors concede an average of 1.50 goals per match

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 direct duels between these teams

The record is balanced with one win each and two draws

The last encounter ended in a clear 5-0 win for Gil Vicente

Key Players

For Famalicão, Gil Dias with 4 goals and 7 assists and Sorriso with 5 goals and 4 assists stand out

Mathias de Amorim also controls the midfield with 4 goals this season

For Gil Vicente, attacker Héctor Hernández is in focus with 2 goals and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Famalicão's Lazar Carević played 34 league games and the team recorded 17 clean sheets

Lucão is in goal for Gil Vicente, having played 8 games this season with 12 clean sheets for his team

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estádio Municipal de Famalicão

The stadium history shows an average of 2.2 goals per game

The probability of both teams scoring is calculated at 42%

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