Match report →
Famalicão – Gil Vicente0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Famalicão
1.12
Total xG
2.01
Gil Vicente
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Famalicão | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.41 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.39 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 18% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Murilo de Souza Costa on the bench (11 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Luís André Leite Esteves not in squad (4 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Santiago García González not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 75% of goal output missing (only 30% available) |
Key factors
- Squad crisis for the visitors: Only 31% of goal threat is available as Murilo de Souza Costa, Luís André Leite Esteves and Santiago García González are missing
- Strong home defense for Famalicão: Averaged only 0.55 goals conceded per home game this season
- Famalicão averaged 3.0 shots on target in recent matches with 59% possession
Risks
- Struggling goal production for Famalicão, averaging 0.8 goals recently compared to a season average of 1.3
- Gil Vicente with only 6 days of rest since their last match
- Statistical analysis predicts a low-scoring game with only a 33% probability for over 2.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Famalicão39%
Draw34%
Gil Vicente27%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Double chance
Famalicão or draw73%
Gil Vicente or draw61%
No draw66%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
Lineups
Famalicão 4-2-3-1 · Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 28 P. Bondo Francisco
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 23 G. Bastião Dias
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 26 W. Moreira da Costa
- 5 F. Cáseres
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 23 H. Hernández Marrero
Substitutes
- 24 M. Jangeal
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 18 R. Beney
- 91 R. Silva Almeida
- 11 Ó. Aranda Subiela
- 21 T. Szücs
- 36 M. Mattara Colombo
- 5 L. Meyer
- 22 G. Cabral da Cruz
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 6 J. Natário Ferreira
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 29 Carlos Eduardo
- 2 J. Silva
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 99 M. Kaba
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