Match report â
Nacional â Estrela Amadora2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Nacional
1.35
Total xG
2.41
Estrela Amadora
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nacional | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | â0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 48% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Paulo Moreira not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jefferson Encada on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical prediction favors Nacional with a 42% win probability (expected goals: 1.35 to 1.06)
- Nacional averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Estrela Amadora played counter-oriented in recent games, averaging 39% possession
Risks
- Nacional plays with a weakened squad, with only 63% of the usual goal threat available
- Estrela Amadora misses Paulo Moreira and Jefferson Encada, leaving only 70% of the usual goal threat available
- Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.13 goals in away matches
All probabilities
Result
Nacional42%
Draw31%
Estrela Amadora28%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
Nacional or draw72%
Estrela Amadora or draw58%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (9 points lost)
- Nacional: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Estrela Amadora: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Estrela Amadora: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Nacional 3-4-2-1 · Estrela Amadora 4-3-3
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 52 W. de Oliveira Andrade
- 28 I. Liziero Pereira
- 22 F. Barros Soares
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 8 M. Baeza PĂ©rez
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 5 S. LekoviÄ
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 39 E. Doué
- 8 R. Oliveira Botelho
- 99 A. Marcus
- 37 L. Antonetti
- 10 I. Stoica
Substitutes
- 7 M. Jensen
- 13 J. Oliveira Gonçalves
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 50 K. Medeiros de Freitas
- 88 Deivison Souza Brito
- 31 D. Dongmo
- 17 F. Nava Ortega
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 23 M. José Iseppe
- 2 D. de la Cruz
- 9 A. Obando
- 20 M. DjalĂł
- 19 J. JordĂĄn Moreno
- 9 S. van Hooijdonk
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 4 B. Schappo
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 79 A. Atanasov Chernev
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 93 B. Loussakou Souza
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
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