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Liga Portugal

Nacional - Estrela Amadora

08/30/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Nacional
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Estrela Amadora
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
NACEA

Nacional

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
48% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

Estrela Amadora

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.51
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Paulo Moreira not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Jefferson Encada on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 69% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (9 points lost)

  • 2
    Nacional: 3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Estrela Amadora: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Estrela Amadora: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical prediction favors Nacional with a 42% win probability (expected goals: 1.35 to 1.06)
  • Nacional averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Estrela Amadora played counter-oriented in recent games, averaging 39% possession
Risk Factors
  • Nacional plays with a weakened squad, with only 63% of the usual goal threat available
  • Estrela Amadora misses Paulo Moreira and Jefferson Encada, leaving only 70% of the usual goal threat available
  • Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.13 goals in away matches
Overview

Nacional (8th place, 4 points) host Estrela Amadora (11th place, 2 points) at the EstĂĄdio da Madeira

Liga Portugal match on August 30, 2026, 2:30 PM

A mid-table clash where both teams aim to climb higher

Form

Nacional with form LWDWL in recent matches

Last match ended in a 0-1 loss against VitĂłria GuimarĂŁes

Estrela Amadora with form LDDDD enters with four consecutive draws

Their last game was a 2-2 draw against Alverca

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Nacional scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 1.32 this season

In home games, they scored 1.10 and conceded 1.10 goals on average

Estrela Amadora scored 1.12 goals on average and conceded 1.65 per game

In away matches, the visitors concede an average of 2.13 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Estrela Amadora leads with 2 wins, Nacional has 1 win and 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 win for Nacional on April 4, 2026

Key Players

LĂ©o Santos with 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.85

Ze Vitor contributed 4 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.00

Liziero shines in midfield with 4 assists and a rating of 7.04

Abraham Marcus scored 5 goals and provided 5 assists (Rating: 7.04)

Ianis Stoica has 3 goals and 2 assists (Rating: 6.73)

Stefan Leković scored 2 goals with an average rating of 7.10

Goalkeepers

Renato Marin starts in goal for Nacional, who recorded 8 clean sheets this season

LĂ©o Linck is in goal for Estrela Amadora, who also achieved 8 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the EstĂĄdio da Madeira

Nacional scores an average of 1.10 goals and concedes 1.10 at home

The venue history shows an average of 2.0 goals per game

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