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Liga Portugal08/29/2026, 02:30 PM

Alverca – Santa Clara1 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Alverca
1.21
Total xG
2.10
Santa Clara
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorAlvercaSanta Clara
Attack weakness (0.65x league average)−0.70
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.34+0.34
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)+0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.08
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)−0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)+0.02
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
16% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Alverca averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Santa Clara arrives with stable form, while mathematical analysis gives the home team a 42% win probability
  • The historical rate of 100% BTTS in past home matches suggests an open game

Risks

  • Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira, Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui missing, only 66% of goal threat available
  • Low offensive threat with both teams averaging under 3.5 shots on target per match recently

All probabilities

Result
Alverca42%
Draw33%
Santa Clara25%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Double chance
Alverca or draw75%
Santa Clara or draw58%
No draw67%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%

Most likely scores

1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
0:1
9%
2:0
9%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Alverca: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
  2. Santa Clara: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
  3. Santa Clara: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 15 total)
  4. Alverca: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
  5. Alverca: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

Lineups

Alverca 3-4-2-1 · Santa Clara 4-2-3-1

Alverca
  • 31 Matheus Mendes
  • 14 S. Baseya
  • 4 Y. Bojang
  • 12 I. James
  • 2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
  • 25 I. Baroni Boetto
  • 35 R. Marques de Souza
  • 55 F. Chissumba Rodrigues
  • 7 A. Cunha Vidigal
  • 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
  • 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
Santa Clara
  • 1 L. Oliveira de França
  • 2 D. Dos Santos Cabral
  • 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
  • 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
  • 5 G. RomĂŁo
  • 6 P. Ferreira
  • 8 J. Rocha Tavares
  • 99 L. de Castro
  • 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
  • 70 V. Lopes da Silva
  • 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
Substitutes
  • 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
  • 17 S. Merheg Enciso
  • 20 D. Spencer Marques
  • 21 S. GĂłmez SolĂ 
  • 6 D. Gui
  • 11 C. Nuozzi
  • 8 V. Silva Moreira
  • 93 J. Vivian
  • 18 Z. Kessary
  • 15 I. de La Caridad Caldeira dos Santos
  • 91 J. da Siqueira
  • 19 M. Essimi Ateba
  • 11 W. dos Santos
  • 12 H. JĂșnior
  • 42 L. Soares de Almeida
  • 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
  • 7 L. Santos Oliveira
  • 3 H. da Silva
  • 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
  • 22 V. Amorim de Assis
  • 18 A. Ferreira Duarte
  • 73 L. Gomes da Silva JacĂł
  • 25 F. Medeiros Silva
  • 81 S. Fofana

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