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Liga Portugal

Alverca - Santa Clara

08/29/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Alverca
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Santa Clara
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
ALVSC

Alverca

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.08
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Santa Clara

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.70
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
16% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Alverca: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 2
    Santa Clara: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 3
    Santa Clara: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 15 total)

  • 4
    Alverca: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games

  • 5
    Alverca: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

33%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Alverca averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Santa Clara arrives with stable form, while mathematical analysis gives the home team a 42% win probability
  • The historical rate of 100% BTTS in past home matches suggests an open game
Risk Factors
  • Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira, Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui missing, only 66% of goal threat available
  • Low offensive threat with both teams averaging under 3.5 shots on target per match recently
Overview

Alverca (15th place, 1 point) host Santa Clara (4th place, 7 points) at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Liga Portugal match on August 29, 2026, 3:30 PM

The hosts aim to get back on track while the visitors want to stay near the top

Form

Alverca is struggling with a form string of DLLDL

No wins in their last five matches, recording two draws and three losses

Santa Clara comes in with a solid form of WLDWW

The visitors secured three wins and one draw alongside one loss

Statistics

Alverca averages 1.03 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game

Santa Clara averages 0.94 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game

The hosts' goal production has slowed down recently to 0.8 goals per match

Santa Clara scores consistently with an average of 1.2 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In two head-to-head matches, Santa Clara won once and there was one draw

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Figueiredo has scored 6 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Nabil Touaizi has 1 goal and 5 assists to his name

Gonçalo Paciência has scored 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira kept 5 clean sheets at home

Santa Clara has recorded 10 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

The venue shows a high average of 3.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in all 5 recorded home games of Alverca

Alverca had 7 days of rest since their last competitive match

Santa Clara approaches this fixture with 6 days of rest

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