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Liga Portugal

Santa Clara - Rio Ave

09/06/2026, 02:30 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Santa Clara
1.5
Total xG
2.1
Rio Ave
0.6
Most Likely Scores

1:0

17%

2:0

14%

0:0

13%

1:1

12%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SCRA

Santa Clara

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
19% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Rio Ave

Attack weakness (0.37x league average)
-1.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.14
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santa Clara: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 15 total)

  • 2
    Santa Clara: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (10/14 games, last 30)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

28%

Away Win

13%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

87%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Home advantage and model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 58% home win probability and expects 1.53 home goals
  • Tactical advantage: Santa Clara averaged 2.8 shots on target with 44% possession in recent matches
  • Player form: Gonçalo Paciência is in rising form with 4 goals in his last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Low goal threat: Rio Ave averaged only 1.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Historical setback: Santa Clara lost the last head-to-head match at home 0-2
  • Struggling home offense: Santa Clara scores an average of only 0.94 goals per home game
Overview

Santa Clara hosts Rio Ave at the Estádio de São Miguel

Liga Portugal match on September 6, 2026, 3:30 PM

Santa Clara is in 5th place with 8 points

Rio Ave occupies 14th place with 3 points

The home team enters the match as favorites

Form

Santa Clara's form is LDWWD

They recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Rio Ave's form is DLLWL

The visitors recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Santa Clara scores 0.94 goals and concedes 1.21 goals per game on average

Rio Ave scores 1.03 goals and concedes 1.68 goals per game on average

The hosts concede 0.94 goals per home game

Rio Ave concedes 1.65 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Both teams have 1 win each with 2 draws

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 win for Rio Ave

Key Players

Vinícius Lopes has scored 6 goals this season for the hosts

Gonçalo Paciência is in rising form with 4 goals in the last 5 matches

Jalen Blesa has already scored 7 goals this season for Rio Ave

Goalkeepers

Lucas França starts in goal for Santa Clara with a 6.96 rating in home games

Ennio Van Der Gouw plays in goal for Rio Ave with a season rating of 6.87

Santa Clara kept 10 clean sheets this season compared to 6 for Rio Ave

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estádio de São Miguel

The stadium averages 2.4 goals per game

Santa Clara benefits from a solid home defense conceding only 0.94 goals per game

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