Match report →
Santa Clara – Rio Ave4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Santa Clara
1.53
Total xG
2.13
Rio Ave
0.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santa Clara | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.37x league average) | −1.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 19% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home advantage and model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 58% home win probability and expects 1.53 home goals
- Tactical advantage: Santa Clara averaged 2.8 shots on target with 44% possession in recent matches
- Player form: Gonçalo Paciência is in rising form with 4 goals in his last 5 matches
Risks
- Low goal threat: Rio Ave averaged only 1.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical setback: Santa Clara lost the last head-to-head match at home 0-2
- Struggling home offense: Santa Clara scores an average of only 0.94 goals per home game
All probabilities
Result
Santa Clara58%
Draw28%
Rio Ave13%
Double chance
Santa Clara or draw87%
Rio Ave or draw42%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.536%
Under 2.564%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No63%
Most likely scores
1:0
17%
2:0
14%
0:0
13%
1:1
12%
2:1
8%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santa Clara: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 15 total)
- Santa Clara: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Santa Clara with Gonçalo Paciência starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (10/14 games, last 30)
Lineups
Santa Clara 4-2-3-1 · Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
Santa Clara
- 1 L. Oliveira de França
- 42 L. Soares de Almeida
- 4 P. Pacheco Seabra
- 21 E. Moreira Fernandes
- 5 G. Romão
- 8 J. Rocha Tavares
- 6 P. Ferreira
- 20 T. Hora Ribeiro
- 70 V. Lopes da Silva
- 9 G. Mendes Paciencia
- 10 B. Gonçalves Santos
Rio Ave
- 99 E. van der Gouw
- 54 G. Liavas
- 23 F. Petrasso
- 39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
- 17 M. Vrousai
- 44 T. Nikitscher
- 5 A. Ntoi
- 7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
- 11 J. Miller Blesa
- 77 D. Špikić
- 9 T. Folgado Monteiro
Substitutes
- 11 W. dos Santos
- 12 H. Júnior
- 7 L. Santos Oliveira
- 3 H. da Silva
- 80 T. Ribeiro Duarte
- 17 J. Vasconcelos Faria Gonçalves
- 22 V. Amorim de Assis
- 41 D. Borges da Silva
- 18 A. Ferreira Duarte
- 99 L. de Castro
- 73 L. Gomes da Silva Jacó
- 25 F. Medeiros Silva
- 22 K. Chamorro Rodríguez
- 24 P. Gaspar Amaral
- 20 J. Esteves Baptista
- 27 T. Medina
- 30 R. Galčík
- 80 S. Clemmensen
- 60 C. Valença
- 67 S. Alves
- 70 A. Wenck
- 79 M. Almeida Patrício
- 19 M. Sellouki
- 98 R. Real
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