Match report →
Marítimo – Benfica0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Marítimo
1.01
Total xG
2.38
Benfica
1.37
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Marítimo | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.29 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.29 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.10 | |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 |
Key factors
- Benfica is scoring more frequently recently (3.2 goals) than their season average of 2.2
- Benfica averaged 8.4 shots on target with 64% possession in recent matches
- Benfica enters with strong momentum of 4 consecutive wins (form: DWWWW)
Risks
- Benfica has had only 5 days of rest compared to Marítimo with 7 days
- Benfica goalkeeper Samuel Soares shows a declining trend with a rating of 6.65 in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Marítimo26%
Draw31%
Benfica43%
Double chance
Marítimo or draw57%
Benfica or draw74%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
11%
0:0
11%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Benfica: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Benfica: 10 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)
Lineups
Marítimo 4-3-3 · Benfica 4-2-3-1
Marítimo
- 13 A. Pastor Vacas
- 2 I. de Carvalho Julião
- 4 R. Gomes Fernandes
- 44 R. Rodrigues Correia
- 23 P. Rodrigues Cabral
- 14 R. Guzzo
- 6 R. Rodrigues Andrade
- 18 V. Danilović
- 35 B. Limbombe
- 17 A. Butzke Benavides
- 10 M. Tejón Fauli
Benfica
- 24 S. Jumpe Soares
- 6 A. Hartmann Bah
- 44 T. Araújo
- 2 C. Lenglet
- 26 S. Dahl
- 18 L. Barreiro Martins
- 36 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
- 10 H. Sudakov
- 25 G. Prestianni Gross
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Substitutes
- 21 I. Alani
- 30 F. Barbosa Vieites
- 22 G. Szalai
- 5 N. Lopes
- 1 J. Macedo Tabuaco
- 27 S. Bamba
- 90 M. Boakye
- 66 I. Ayuma
- 8 M. Dominguez
- 16 F. Silva
- 13 J. Kamiński
- 1 A. Trubin
- 62 J. Formoso Neto
- 5 E. Barrenechea
- 11 D. Lukebakio
- 8 F. Aursnes
- 16 M. Silva
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 22 J. Durán Palacio
- 3 A. Circati
- 72 A. Fernandes Reis Cabral
- 77 G. Carvalho Moreira
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