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Liga Portugal

Marítimo - Benfica

09/05/2026, 05:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Marítimo
1.0
Total xG
2.4
Benfica
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

11%

0:0

11%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
MARBEN

Marítimo

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.10
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06

Benfica

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.44
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.29
Rising form (3.2 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.29
Attack strength (1.4x league average)
-0.07
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Benfica: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Benfica: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    Benfica: 10 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Benfica: goal in the first 15 minutes in 7 of 12 games (58%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

31%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Benfica is scoring more frequently recently (3.2 goals) than their season average of 2.2
  • Benfica averaged 8.4 shots on target with 64% possession in recent matches
  • Benfica enters with strong momentum of 4 consecutive wins (form: DWWWW)
Risk Factors
  • Benfica has had only 5 days of rest compared to Marítimo with 7 days
  • Benfica goalkeeper Samuel Soares shows a declining trend with a rating of 6.65 in recent matches
Overview

Marítimo (7th place, 7 points) host Benfica (5th place, 7 points) at the Estádio do Marítimo

Liga Portugal match on September 5, 2026, 6:00 PM

Both teams enter this fixture level on points in the standings

Form

Marítimo shows the form WWDL with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Their last match ended in a 1-2 defeat against Arouca

Benfica comes in with the form DWWWW with 4 wins and 1 draw

The visitors travel with a run of 4 consecutive victories

Statistics

Benfica scores an average of 2.18 goals per game this season

On the road, the visitors average 2.20 goals per match

Marítimo scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.25 goals per game

The mathematical model calculates a 43% probability for an away win

Key Players

Vangelis Pavlidis leads the attack with 23 goals this season and an average rating of 7.22

Gianluca Prestianni contributed 3 goals and 6 assists so far

Rafa Silva has registered 5 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Samuel Soares starts in goal for Benfica with 14 clean sheets this season

Alfonso Pastor starts in goal for Marítimo

Samuel Soares saw his average rating drop to 6.65 in recent matches

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estádio do Marítimo

Venue statistics show an average of 2.5 goals per game

The venue's BTTS rate stands at 50%

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