đŸ‡”đŸ‡č

Liga Portugal

Alverca - Sporting Braga

09/05/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Alverca
0.9
Total xG
1.9
Sporting Braga
1.0
Most Likely Scores

0:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

13%

1:0

12%

0:2

7%
What influences the xG?
ALVSB

Alverca

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.27
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.07
Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average)
-0.07
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.07
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match)

Sporting Braga

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.58
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.28
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.03
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Alverca: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Pau VĂ­ctor: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Alverca: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Alverca: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

35%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

31%

Under 2.5

69%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

40%

No

60%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: Sporting Braga won both previous matches with a combined score of 8-0
  • Tactical advantage: Sporting Braga averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Alverca's 2.8
  • Close prediction: Mathematical models project a tight contest with a 35% win probability for Braga and 31% for Alverca
Risk Factors
  • Alverca's offensive struggles: The home team averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Negative form trend: Advanced stats show a negative recent form trend for both teams
  • Restricted data: No weather data is available in the provided dataset
Overview

Alverca host Sporting Braga at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Liga Portugal match on September 5, 2026, 5:00 PM

Alverca are in 16th place with 2 points, while Sporting Braga are 9th with 4 points

Form

Alverca show a form of LLDLD with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses across all competitions

Sporting Braga arrive with a form of DDWDW, including 2 wins and 3 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Alverca scored an average of 1.03 goals and conceded 1.53 goals per match this season

Sporting Braga average 1.88 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per match

Alverca scored an average of 1.06 goals at home, while Braga averaged 1.88 goals away

Head-to-Head

Two head-to-head matches in the database, both won by Sporting Braga

Goal difference of 0:8 from Alverca's perspective

The last meeting ended in a 5:0 win for Sporting Braga on January 25, 2026

Key Players

For Alverca, Figueiredo has scored 6 goals this season with a rating of 7.01

Nabil Touaizi contributed 1 goal and 5 assists with a rating of 6.75 for Alverca

Pau VĂ­ctor leads Sporting Braga with 10 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.02

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

The venue history shows an average of 3.0 goals per game with a 100% BTTS rate

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.