Match report →
Alverca – Sporting Braga1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Alverca
0.93
Total xG
1.94
Sporting Braga
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Alverca | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.58 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average) | −0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Sporting Braga won both previous matches with a combined score of 8-0
- Tactical advantage: Sporting Braga averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Alverca's 2.8
- Close prediction: Mathematical models project a tight contest with a 35% win probability for Braga and 31% for Alverca
Risks
- Alverca's offensive struggles: The home team averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Negative form trend: Advanced stats show a negative recent form trend for both teams
- Restricted data: No weather data is available in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Alverca30%
Draw35%
Sporting Braga35%
Double chance
Alverca or draw65%
Sporting Braga or draw70%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.559%
Under 1.541%
Over 2.531%
Under 2.569%
Over 3.513%
Under 3.587%
Both teams score
Yes40%
No60%
Most likely scores
0:0
16%
1:1
15%
0:1
13%
1:0
12%
0:2
7%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Alverca: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Sporting Braga: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Pau Víctor: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Alverca: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Alverca: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Alverca 3-4-3 · Sporting Braga 3-4-3
Alverca
- 31 Matheus Mendes
- 14 S. Baseya
- 21 S. Gómez Solà
- 4 Y. Bojang
- 27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
- 25 I. Baroni Boetto
- 35 R. Marques de Souza
- 12 I. James
- 10 Chiquinho
- 9 V. Semedo Moura Sousa
- 22 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Sporting Braga
- 31 B. Parise Fontes
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 6 V. Carvalho Vieira
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 2 V. Gómez Perea
- 34 D. Tıknaz
- 8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
- 7 D. Martins Travassos
- 20 M. Dorgeles
- 10 Pau Victor
- 50 D. Oliveira Rodrigues
Substitutes
- 19 D. Camara Sankharé
- 7 A. Cunha Vidigal
- 17 S. Merheg Enciso
- 20 D. Spencer Marques
- 6 D. Gui
- 11 C. Nuozzi
- 8 V. Silva Moreira
- 93 J. Vivian
- 18 Z. Kessary
- 15 I. de La Caridad Caldeira dos Santos
- 91 J. da Siqueira
- 77 ?. Torrellas Durán
- 19 J. Older Wind
- 37 L. Barišić
- 17 J. Milošević
- 22 S. Barcia Laranxeira
- 12 T. Magalhães Sá
- 77 G. Martínez Aguilera
- 26 B. Arrey-Mbi
- 9 F. Navarro Aliaga
- 16 T. Marqués Morera
- 78 J. Gonçalo Carapinha
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