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Vitória Guimarães – Casa Pia0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vitória Guimarães
1.94
Total xG
2.58
Casa Pia
0.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória Guimarães | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | −0.97 | |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.81 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Oumar Camara on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gonçalo Nogueira on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Abdu Conté on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 33% available) |
Key factors
- Critical absence for the visitors: Casa Pia must play without Abdu Conté, leaving only 33% of their usual goal threat available according to the dataset
- Clear model favorites: The mathematical analysis calculates a 67% probability for a home win with 1.94 expected goals for Vitória
- Tactical advantage: Vitória Guimarães recently averaged 3.4 shots on target compared to 2.6 for the visitors
Risks
- Weakened home offensive: Vitória Guimarães is missing Oumar Camara and Gonçalo Nogueira, reducing their active starting strength to 83%
- Low scoring trend at the venue: Recent matches at this stadium averaged only 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in none of the last 5 matches
- Declining finishing form: Advanced stats show that the home team's goal production has slowed down to 0.6 recently compared to their season average of 1.2
All probabilities
Result
Vitória Guimarães67%
Draw23%
Casa Pia10%
Double chance
Vitória Guimarães or draw90%
Casa Pia or draw33%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
2:0
14%
1:1
11%
3:0
9%
2:1
9%
3:1
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Vitória Guimarães: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 13)
- Casa Pia: 2.7 cards per game (27 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Vitória Guimarães 4-2-3-1 · Casa Pia 4-2-3-1
Vitória Guimarães
- 48 O. Zych
- 23 T. Strata
- 28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
- 5 A. Sidibé
- 13 João Mendes
- 16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
- 44 L. Doucet
- 17 J. Costa Nogueira
- 20 F. Amorim Silva
- 11 G. da Silva Cunha
- 24 A. Ndoye
Casa Pia
- 31 A. Nogueira Gomes
- 18 A. Geraldes de Barros
- 3 D. Bandeira
- 43 David Sousa
- 75 P. Silva Rosas
- 16 S. Clua Oya
- 80 L. Ofori
- 19 K. Prieto Machado
- 70 J. Seno Luis Rêgo
- 77 B. Pauwels
- 20 A. Jatta
Substitutes
- 19 V. Andersson
- 2 M. Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
- 6 M. Mitrovic
- 18 T. Gomes Arcanjo
- 7 O. Camara
- 22 J. Castillo Reyes
- 4 O. Rivas Viondi
- 8 G. Teixeira Nogueira
- 82 F. Lagos Dias
- 29 V. Ouotro
- 56 S. Verdi Oliveira Silva
- 9 A. Jakupovic
- 9 H. Pereira Araújo
- 4 J. Goulart Silva
- 24 S. Pérez Cardona
- 90 C. Dias Moreira
- 10 D. Costa Rocha
- 95 I. Mandić
- 98 J. de Paula Morais
- 8 M. Ferreira Pereira
- 59 A. Dafe
- 21 A. Zouin
- 11 M. El Boukammiri
- 17 E. Maurin
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