Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães - Casa Pia
09/06/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.6
0.6
2:0
14%1:1
11%3:0
9%2:1
9%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Vitória Guimarães
Casa Pia
The Lab
- 1Casa Pia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- 2Vitória Guimarães: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 13)
- 3Casa Pia: 2.7 cards per game (27 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
67%
Draw
23%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
33%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Critical absence for the visitors: Casa Pia must play without Abdu Conté, leaving only 33% of their usual goal threat available according to the dataset
- Clear model favorites: The mathematical analysis calculates a 67% probability for a home win with 1.94 expected goals for Vitória
- Tactical advantage: Vitória Guimarães recently averaged 3.4 shots on target compared to 2.6 for the visitors
Risk Factors
- Weakened home offensive: Vitória Guimarães is missing Oumar Camara and Gonçalo Nogueira, reducing their active starting strength to 83%
- Low scoring trend at the venue: Recent matches at this stadium averaged only 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in none of the last 5 matches
- Declining finishing form: Advanced stats show that the home team's goal production has slowed down to 0.6 recently compared to their season average of 1.2
Overview
Vitória Guimarães (13th place, 3 points) hosts Casa Pia (18th place, 0 points) at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Liga Portugal match on September 6, 2026, 6:00 PM
The home team enters this bottom-table duel as the clear favorite
Form
Vitória Guimarães shows a form of LLLWL with 1 win and 4 losses
Casa Pia stands at DLLLL with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses
Both teams are currently in a difficult phase
(Form key: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Vitória Guimarães scores an average of 1.15 goals and concedes 1.50 goals
Casa Pia averages 0.91 goals while conceding 1.68 goals
Away from home, Casa Pia concedes an average of 2.21 goals per game
The home team concedes an average of only 0.83 goals at home
Head-to-Head
Balanced historical record with 4 head-to-head matches
Each team has won 1 game along with 2 draws
The goal difference is completely even at 2 to 2 goals
The last encounter ended with a 0-1 victory for Casa Pia
Key Players
Samu is the most dangerous midfielder for the home team with 7 goals and 3 assists
Gustavo Silva contributed 5 goals and 2 assists in attack so far
A. Ndoye has 2 goals and 1 assist this season
David Sousa is a goalscoring threat in defense for Casa Pia with 2 goals
Kaly stabilizes the defense with an average rating of 6.60
Pedro Rosas has a consistent rating of 6.51
Goalkeepers
Oliwier Zych has played three times at home for Vitória Guimarães with a rating of 6.66
André Nogueira Gomes has two appearances in goal for Casa Pia with an average of 7.59
The home team kept 10 clean sheets overall this season
Casa Pia kept 7 clean sheets in comparison
Influences
The game is played on grass at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Recent matches at this venue averaged 2.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in none of the last 5 matches at this location
Only one of the last 5 home matches ended with over 2.5 goals