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Liga Portugal

Sporting CP - Nacional

09/05/2026, 07:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Sporting CP
2.6
Total xG
3.3
Nacional
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

3:0

11%

2:1

9%

1:1

8%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
SCNAC

Sporting CP

Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+1.46
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.47
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap)
+0.14
Georgios Vagiannidis on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Eduardo Quaresma on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Nacional

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.79
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap)
-0.10
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.01
Liziero not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 50% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting CP: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Sporting CP: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Sporting CP: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Nacional: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 14)

  • 5
    Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

16%

Away Win

7%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

93%

Away or Draw

24%

No Draw

84%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Nacional has only 50% of its regular starting XI strength available, with Liziero missing
  • Sporting CP recently dominated possession with an average of 61% possession and 6.0 shots on target per match
  • The mathematical model estimates a very high home win probability of 76%
Risk Factors
  • Nacional averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Nacional enters this match with a negative trend after two consecutive losses
Overview

Sporting CP host Nacional at the Estádio José Alvalade

Liga Portugal match on September 5, 2026, 8:30 PM

Clash between the second-placed and tenth-placed teams

Sporting CP aim to keep pressure on league leaders Porto

Form

Sporting CP is in strong shape with the form WDWWW

The home team recorded 4 wins and 1 draw recently

Away side Nacional has struggled with the form WDWLL

Nacional recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

Statistics

Sporting CP scored a strong average of 2.62 goals per game this season

The home defense stands extremely solid with only 0.71 goals conceded per game

Away side Nacional concedes an average of 1.69 goals per game on the road

In past home matches, games featured a high average of 4.4 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Sporting CP completely dominated the last 4 head-to-head matches

The home side earned 4 wins with 0 losses and 0 draws

The goal difference in this period stands at 14:3 for Sporting CP

The last encounter ended 2:1 for the home team on February 1, 2026

Key Players

Luis Suárez shines for the home side with 28 goals and 6 assists this season

Maxi Araújo contributed 5 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.11 so far

Geny Catamo recorded 6 goals and 3 assists in this campaign

Léo Santos leads the visitors with 3 goals and 2 assists this season

Ze Vitor impressed so far with 4 goals and a rating of 7.00

Miguel Baeza scored 1 goal this season with an average rating of 6.61

Goalkeepers

Rui Silva starts in goal for Sporting CP and kept 15 clean sheets this season

Nacional deploys Renato Marin between the posts

The home team completed 15 games with clean sheets during this campaign

Influences

Significant home advantage for Sporting CP at the Estádio José Alvalade on grass

The home record shows an outstanding 51 goals scored and only 11 conceded

The venue promises a high-scoring game with an average of 4.4 goals per match

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