Match report →
Sporting CP – Nacional2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sporting CP
2.56
Total xG
3.27
Nacional
0.72
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +1.46 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.79 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Georgios Vagiannidis on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Eduardo Quaresma on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Liziero not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 50% available) |
Key factors
- Nacional has only 50% of its regular starting XI strength available, with Liziero missing
- Sporting CP recently dominated possession with an average of 61% possession and 6.0 shots on target per match
- The mathematical model estimates a very high home win probability of 76%
Risks
- Nacional averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Nacional enters this match with a negative trend after two consecutive losses
All probabilities
Result
Sporting CP76%
Draw16%
Nacional7%
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw93%
Nacional or draw24%
No draw84%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
3:0
11%
2:1
9%
1:1
8%
3:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting CP: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Sporting CP: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sporting CP: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Nacional: 36% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 14)
- Sporting CP: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Sporting CP 4-2-3-1 · Nacional 3-4-2-1
Sporting CP
- 1 R. Dantas da Silva
- 22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
- 6 Z. Debast
- 25 G. Inácio
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 5 S. Altimira Clavell
- 77 I. Doumbia
- 10 G. Cipriano Catamo
- 17 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 58 F. Gonçalves
- 97 L. Suárez Charris
Nacional
- 1 R. Bellucci Marin
- 34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 33 F. Baptista Gonçalves
- 38 J. Lima Cardoso
- 52 W. de Oliveira Andrade
- 6 Matheus Dias
- 8 M. Baeza Pérez
- 21 W. Kokolo
- 11 S. Gavriel
- 7 M. Jensen
- 99 P. Messias Cardozo
Substitutes
- 19 N. Irankunda
- 13 G. Vagiannidis
- 7 F. Ioannidis
- 31 L. Lira dos Santos
- 72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
- 4 S. Andersen
- 73 E. Freitas Monteiro Ferreira Felicíssimo
- 9 R. Nel
- 21 P. Lima Barros
- 30 K. Pereira Azarias
- 50 R. Amores Dias
- 28 J. Derry
- 15 C. Abidi
- 50 K. Medeiros de Freitas
- 88 Deivison Souza Brito
- 10 D. de Melo Araujo Junior
- 31 D. Dongmo
- 17 F. Nava Ortega
- 2 D. de la Cruz
- 9 A. Obando
- 20 M. Djaló
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →