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Estrela Amadora – Famalicão2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Estrela Amadora
0.89
Total xG
2.16
Famalicão
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estrela Amadora | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.25 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Jefferson Encada on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Gil Dias on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 60% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form Trend: Estrela Amadora currently score more frequently (2.3 goals) than their season average (1.4), while Famalicão's goal production stalls at 0.8
- Tactical Advantage: Estrela Amadora averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches, whereas Famalicão averaged only 2.4
- Model Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a 56% probability for a home win or draw
Risks
- Gil Dias is missing for Famalicão, leaving only 60% of the usual starting XI strength available
- Famalicão averaged only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches, indicating poor chance creation
- The expected goals model favors the visitors with 1.28 expected goals compared to 0.89 for the hosts
All probabilities
Result
Estrela Amadora24%
Draw32%
Famalicão44%
Double chance
Estrela Amadora or draw56%
Famalicão or draw76%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.565%
Under 1.535%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.517%
Under 3.583%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
13%
0:2
9%
1:0
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
- Estrela Amadora: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Estrela Amadora 4-2-3-1 · Famalicão 4-2-3-1
Estrela Amadora
- 24 L. Baiersdorf Linck
- 21 M. Scholze
- 30 L. Wiedthauper
- 5 S. Leković
- 55 L. Soares Alves
- 39 E. Doué
- 71 E. Pedro Vanga
- 99 A. Marcus
- 14 L. Zvonarek
- 10 I. Stoica
- 37 L. Antonetti
Famalicão
- 25 L. Carević
- 17 R. Pinheiro Ferreira
- 3 L. Realpe Montaño
- 4 F. van Breemen
- 28 P. Bondo Francisco
- 8 M. Peña Ocaña
- 19 P. Valente Moreira
- 18 R. Beney
- 14 M. De Amorim
- 7 M. Lopes Moura
- 70 G. Koutsias
Substitutes
- 19 J. Jordán Moreno
- 51 D. de Carvalho Pinto
- 4 B. Schappo
- 17 J. Silva Encada
- 79 A. Atanasov Chernev
- 80 A. Souza de Jesus
- 22 D. Allen Grilo
- 8 R. Oliveira Botelho
- 3 L. Mincarelli Davin
- 72 H.Poniewas
- 93 B. Loussakou Souza
- 78 S. Ferreira Serra
- 24 M. Jangeal
- 1 I. Zlobin
- 2 G. García dos Santos
- 9 U. Abubakar
- 23 G. Bastião Dias
- 10 P. Costa Santos
- 11 Ó. Aranda Subiela
- 21 T. Szücs
- 33 P. Salas
- 36 M. Mattara Colombo
- 15 V. Rofino Gordo
- 5 L. Meyer
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