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Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora - Famalicão

09/05/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Estrela Amadora
0.9
Total xG
2.2
Famalicão
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

13%

0:2

9%

1:0

9%
What influences the xG?
EAFAM

Estrela Amadora

Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.25
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap)
-0.10
Jefferson Encada on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 74% available)

Famalicão

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.35
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap)
+0.06
Gil Dias on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 60% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Famalicão: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 2
    Estrela Amadora: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)

  • 3
    Estrela Amadora: 2.9 cards per game (34 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

32%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Form Trend: Estrela Amadora currently score more frequently (2.3 goals) than their season average (1.4), while Famalicão's goal production stalls at 0.8
  • Tactical Advantage: Estrela Amadora averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches, whereas Famalicão averaged only 2.4
  • Model Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a 56% probability for a home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Gil Dias is missing for Famalicão, leaving only 60% of the usual starting XI strength available
  • Famalicão averaged only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches, indicating poor chance creation
  • The expected goals model favors the visitors with 1.28 expected goals compared to 0.89 for the hosts
Overview

Estrela Amadora host Famalicão at the Estádio José Gomes

Liga Portugal match on September 5, 2026, 4:30 PM

Estrela are in 8th place with 5 points, while Famalicão sit 14th with 2 points

The hosts aim to extend their unbeaten run

Form

Estrela Amadora show stable form with the string DDDDW

They recorded 1 win and 4 draws recently

Famalicão are struggling with the form WDLLD

The visitors registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats lately

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Estrela Amadora average 1.12 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded per season

Famalicão score an average of 1.24 goals while conceding 0.85 per game

At home, Estrela average 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded

Famalicão concede an average of 1.42 goals in away games

Estrela kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Famalicão achieved 17

Head-to-Head

Even record in the last 4 head-to-head matches

Both teams recorded 1 win each alongside 2 draws

The goal difference stands at 3:5 from Estrela's perspective

The last encounter ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Abraham Marcus recorded 5 season goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.04

Ianis Stoica registered 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.73

Leandro Antonetti scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Sorriso has 5 season goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.05

Mathias de Amorim registered 4 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.97

Rodrigo Pinheiro contributed 3 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.97

Goalkeepers

Léo Linck starts in goal for Estrela

Lazar Carević played 34 matches this season for Famalicão

Estrela recorded 8 clean sheets this campaign, while Famalicão kept 17 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estádio José Gomes

The venue averages 2.4 goals per match historically

Both teams scored in 2 of the 5 historical home games

The historical Over 2.5 rate stands at 60% at this location

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