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Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente - Academico Viseu

09/06/2026, 07:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Gil Vicente
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Academico Viseu
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
GVAV

Gil Vicente

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.26
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Santiago GarcĂ­a GonzĂĄlez not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

Academico Viseu

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.72
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.64
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.38
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gil Vicente: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

28%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Favorites role for the hosts: The model calculates a home win probability of 50% and 1.63 expected goals
  • Form gap: Gil Vicente is unbeaten in their last three league matches while Academico Viseu is still winless this season with a DLDL form
  • Defensive stability: Gil Vicente concedes an average of just 0.85 goals per home match
Risk Factors
  • Key absence: Santiago GarcĂ­a GonzĂĄlez (6 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated, leaving Gil Vicente with only 82% of their usual goal threat available
  • Offensive limitations: Gil Vicente averaged only 3.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Limited data availability for Academico Viseu due to missing player statistics in the provided dataset
Overview

Gil Vicente (6th place, 7 points) host Academico Viseu (15th place, 2 points) at the EstĂĄdio Cidade de Barcelos

Liga Portugal match on September 6, 2026, 8:30 PM

The home side enters this fixture as the clear favorite

Form

Gil Vicente is in solid form with LLWWD and remains unbeaten in their last three league games

Academico Viseu is struggling with a DLDL form and is still searching for their first win of the season

The hosts recorded two wins and one draw in their recent matches

Statistics

Gil Vicente scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes just 0.85 goals per home game

Academico Viseu scores 1.0 goal on average but concedes 2.0 goals per match

Matches at the EstĂĄdio Cidade de Barcelos have averaged 2.2 goals per game

Key Players

Murilo de Souza Costa leads Gil Vicente with 11 goals and 4 assists this season

HĂ©ctor HernĂĄndez shows stable performances with 2 goals and 1 assist this term

Joelson Fernandes contributed 1 goal and 3 assists to Gil Vicente's attack

Goalkeepers

LucĂŁo starts in goal for Gil Vicente and shows a rising form trend

Gil Vicente has recorded 12 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

Home advantage favors Gil Vicente who concede only 0.85 goals per home match

The match will be played on natural grass at the EstĂĄdio Cidade de Barcelos

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