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Gil Vicente – Academico Viseu0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Gil Vicente
1.63
Total xG
2.65
Academico Viseu
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Gil Vicente | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.72 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.64 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Santiago García González not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Favorites role for the hosts: The model calculates a home win probability of 50% and 1.63 expected goals
- Form gap: Gil Vicente is unbeaten in their last three league matches while Academico Viseu is still winless this season with a DLDL form
- Defensive stability: Gil Vicente concedes an average of just 0.85 goals per home match
Risks
- Key absence: Santiago García González (6 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated, leaving Gil Vicente with only 82% of their usual goal threat available
- Offensive limitations: Gil Vicente averaged only 3.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Limited data availability for Academico Viseu due to missing player statistics in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
Gil Vicente50%
Draw28%
Academico Viseu22%
Double chance
Gil Vicente or draw78%
Academico Viseu or draw50%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Gil Vicente: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Gil Vicente 4-2-3-1 · Academico Viseu 4-1-4-1
Gil Vicente
- 30 L. Galdino de Azevedo
- 47 R. Sousa Esgaio
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 39 J. Buatu Mananga
- 26 W. Moreira da Costa
- 6 J. Natário Ferreira
- 86 D. Ferreira Prioste
- 77 M. De Souza Costa
- 20 G. Pinto Martins
- 11 J. Mango Fernandes
- 23 H. Hernández Marrero
Academico Viseu
- 98 E. Ferreira da Silva
- 75 R. Ribeiro Vieira
- 41 A. Correia
- 2 N. Michelis
- 57 G. Abreu Costa
- 7 L. da Costa Silva
- 31 J. de Sousa Crispim
- 14 S. Messeguem
- 8 C. Kahraman
- 10 A. Zamora
- 33 A. Silva Filho
Substitutes
- 45 D. Madeira Moreira
- 27 A. Moreira Morales
- 32 M. Fernández Benítez
- 3 A. Espigares Morillas
- 82 G. Maia Pereira
- 7 T. Chabrol Touré
- 2 J. Silva
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 12 A. Sejr Lausen
- 99 M. Kaba
- 44 T. Ferreira
- 12 J. Soriano Oropesa
- 3 M. Brau Blanquez
- 45 A. García Mestanza
- 6 A. Castanheira Ceitil
- 18 C. Ferreira
- 5 P. Barcelos Silva
- 44 R. Gomes Pereira
- 47 L. Gohi
- 1 M. Lavín Rodríguez
- 21 T. Caldas Januário Carvalho Domingos
- 22 N. Mortimer Moreno
- 77 P. Pereira Araújo
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