Match report →
Porto – Moreirense2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Porto
1.95
Total xG
2.50
Moreirense
0.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Porto | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.43x league average) | −1.07 | |
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.78 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.76 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap) | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Zaidu Sanusi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Alonso Martín not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Porto averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, demonstrating strong offensive quality
- The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 70% for Porto
- Porto dominates the historical record with 4 wins out of 4 games and an 11:2 goal ratio
Risks
- Key player Rodrigo Alonso Martín is missing for Moreirense
- A high-scoring match is unlikely as the Over 2.5 probability in the model is only 46%
- Moreirense has struggled offensively in recent games, averaging only 0.75 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Porto70%
Draw22%
Moreirense8%
Double chance
Porto or draw92%
Moreirense or draw30%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes38%
No62%
Most likely scores
2:0
16%
3:0
10%
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Porto: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Porto: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Porto: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)
- Porto: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Porto 4-3-3 · Moreirense 3-4-3
Porto
- 99 D. Meireles Costa
- 20 A. Costa
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 74 F. Moura
- 8 V. Froholdt
- 13 P. Rosario
- 10 G. Veiga Novas
- 7 W. Gomes Carvalho Santos
- 19 A. Valente Silva
- 11 E. Aquino Cossa
Moreirense
- 13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
- 66 G. Dambi Batista
- 26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
- 27 F. Teixeira Domingues
- 76 D. Casals Namura Borges Pinto
- 23 N. John
- 65 G. Liberato Tomas Aquino
- 11 L. Costa Araujo
- 7 M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 9 A. Duville-Parsemain
- 20 J. Fins Veloso
Substitutes
- 42 S. Fofana
- 16 I. Hwang
- 21 D. Prpić
- 52 M. Moreira Moutinho Fernandes
- 22 A. Varela
- 24 J. Santos da Costa
- 17 B. Sainz Eguskiza
- 14 C. Morais Ramos
- 18 N. Pérez
- 29 S. Giménez
- 33 J. de Souza Menezes
- 57 D. Cunha
- 2 L. Sousa Santos
- 8 M. Stjepanovic
- 10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
- 17 ?. Martínez Navarro
- 99 Y. Farias de Sousa
- 21 R. Alonso Martín
- 4 K. Monteiro de Souza
- 19 T. Pinto Andrade
- 32 J. da Silva Marques
- 1 W. Ferreira dos Santos
- 89 A. Fernandes Lopes Vieira
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →