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Liga Portugal

Porto - Moreirense

09/04/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Porto
2.0
Total xG
2.5
Moreirense
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

16%

3:0

10%

1:1

10%

2:1

9%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
PORMOR

Porto

Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+0.78
Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.76
5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.03
Zaidu Sanusi not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Moreirense

Attack weakness (0.43x league average)
-1.07
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.04
Rodrigo Alonso MartĂ­n not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Porto: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 2
    Porto: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Porto: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Porto: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

22%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

30%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Porto averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, demonstrating strong offensive quality
  • The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 70% for Porto
  • Porto dominates the historical record with 4 wins out of 4 games and an 11:2 goal ratio
Risk Factors
  • Key player Rodrigo Alonso MartĂ­n is missing for Moreirense
  • A high-scoring match is unlikely as the Over 2.5 probability in the model is only 46%
  • Moreirense has struggled offensively in recent games, averaging only 0.75 goals per match
Overview

Porto host Moreirense at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo

Liga Portugal match on September 4, 2026, 8:15 PM

League leaders Porto face 11th-placed Moreirense as clear favorites

Form

Porto is in perfect shape with 5 consecutive wins (WWWWW)

Moreirense shows mixed form with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses (LDDLW)

Form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Porto averaged 1.94 goals scored and 0.53 goals conceded per game this season

Moreirense conceded an average of 1.75 goals per away match

Porto's home defense is extremely solid with only 0.35 goals conceded per game

Head-to-Head

Porto dominates with 4 wins in 4 matches

The goal ratio stands at 11:2 in favor of Porto

The last direct encounter ended in a 3:0 win for Porto on March 15, 2026

Key Players

Gabri Veiga recorded 3 goals and 8 assists this season with a rising form trend

William Gomes contributed 8 goals and 1 assist for the home team

Dinis Lourenço Casals Namura Borges Pinto is crucial for the away team with 1 goal and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Diogo Costa kept 21 clean sheets this season with a rising form trend

André Ferreira registered 9 clean sheets with a declining form trend

Influences

Porto benefited greatly from defensive stability on the grass of the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo

Historical matches at this venue show a low average of 1.6 goals per game

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