Liga Portugal
Estoril - Arouca
09/07/2026, 07:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.3
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
11%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Estoril
Arouca
The Lab
- 1Estoril: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- 2Yanis Begraoui: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- 3Arouca: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- 4Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
31%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Form Discrepancy: Arouca travel with a positive trend and an average of 2.0 goals scored recently while Estoril's attack slowed down to 0.6 goals per game
- Tactical Balance: Both teams showed similar attacking presence in recent matches with Estoril averaging 4.4 shots on target and Arouca 4.0
- Model Outlook: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 40% with 1.27 expected home goals for Estoril
Risk Factors
- Arouca's defensive away weakness with an average of 2.43 goals conceded per away game
- Estoril's defensive vulnerability conceding 1.68 goals per match and keeping only 5 clean sheets
- Low scoring expectations from the model with only 41% probability for over 2.5 goals
Overview
Estoril (17th place, 1 point) host Arouca (5th place, 9 points) at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Liga Portugal match on September 7, 2026, 8:15 PM
Estoril search for their first win of the season while Arouca aim to stay in the upper half of the table
Form
Estoril are in poor form with the form string LDLLL
The home side has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in recent matches
Arouca show strong form with the form string WWWLW
The visitors travel with 4 wins and 1 loss
Statistics
Estoril average 1.59 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded per match
In home games Estoril score an average of 1.61 goals and concede 1.44 goals
Arouca average 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 goals conceded overall
The visitors concede an average of 2.43 goals per away game
Head-to-Head
There have been 4 head-to-head matches in the database
Estoril registered 2 wins while Arouca won 1 game and 1 match ended in a draw
The goal difference stands at 11 to 8 goals in favor of Estoril
The last encounter on April 6, 2026 ended in a 3:2 victory for Arouca
Key Players
Yanis Begraoui leads the Estoril offense with 20 goals this season
João Carvalho excels in midfield with 6 goals and 12 assists
Jordan Holsgrove contributes 1 goal and 7 assists in midfield
Not nominated for Estoril: Rafik Guitane with 3 goals and 5 assists
Alfonso Trezza boosts Arouca with 9 goals and 3 assists
Iván Barbero is a key forward for the visitors with 8 goals
Naïs Djouahra has recorded 6 goals and 3 assists
Not nominated for Arouca: Hyun-ju Lee with 7 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Joel Robles appeared 31 times for Estoril with an average rating of 6.66
Ignacio de Arruabarrena played 16 matches for Arouca with an average rating of 6.81
Estoril kept 5 clean sheets during the season while Arouca kept 7 clean sheets
Influences
The match will be played on grass at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
The venue statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 60% of the matches here while the over 2.5 rate is at 40%
Estoril average 1.61 goals scored at home