Match report →
Estoril – Arouca0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Estoril
1.27
Total xG
2.30
Arouca
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Estoril | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.39 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Rafik Guitane on the bench (3 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Hyun-ju Lee on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form Discrepancy: Arouca travel with a positive trend and an average of 2.0 goals scored recently while Estoril's attack slowed down to 0.6 goals per game
- Tactical Balance: Both teams showed similar attacking presence in recent matches with Estoril averaging 4.4 shots on target and Arouca 4.0
- Model Outlook: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 40% with 1.27 expected home goals for Estoril
Risks
- Arouca's defensive away weakness with an average of 2.43 goals conceded per away game
- Estoril's defensive vulnerability conceding 1.68 goals per match and keeping only 5 clean sheets
- Low scoring expectations from the model with only 41% probability for over 2.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Estoril40%
Draw31%
Arouca28%
Double chance
Estoril or draw72%
Arouca or draw60%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Estoril: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Yanis Begraoui: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Arouca: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Estoril: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Estoril 4-2-3-1 · Arouca 4-2-3-1
Estoril
- 1 J. Robles Blázquez
- 2 R. Sánchez Sendra
- 4 F. Reis Ferreira
- 15 I. Sierra Arnal
- 3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
- 5 A. Tsoungui
- 10 J. Holsgrove
- 7 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
- 12 J. Antunes Carvalho
- 98 F. Garcia Andrade
- 14 Y. Begraoui
Arouca
- 12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
- 28 T. Sousa Esgaio
- 5 B. Popović
- 3 J. Fontán Mondragón
- 18 O. Lebedenko
- 6 E. van Ee
- 8 T. Fukui
- 19 A. Trezza Hernández
- 10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
- 7 N. Djouahra
- 17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Substitutes
- 9 A. Camblan
- 35 S. Amissah
- 22 P. Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho
- 17 A. Ramos das Neves
- 90 T. Brito
- 99 R. Guitane
- 16 M. Turk
- 19 T. Parente
- 80 L. Viegas Abreu Campos Gomes
- 42 J. Arnolin
- 43 F. Lowe
- 37 M. Climent Plá
- 9 F. Mayulu
- 24 B. Mansilla
- 21 M. Flores Lozano
- 89 P. Carvalho Santos
- 4 D. Pinheiro Monteiro
- 23 D. Nandín Berrutti
- 1 J. Vinarčík
- 77 S. Park
- 71 M. da Silva Duarte
- 27 M. R. G. Baldé
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